By Anushree Mukherjee and Brijesh Patel

(Reuters) – Les prix du pétrole devraient être limités à près de 70 {dollars} le baril en 2025, automobile la faible demande de la Chine et l’augmentation des approvisionnements mondiaux devraient jeter une ombre sur les efforts menés par l’OPEP+ pour consolider le marché, a montré mardi un sondage mensuel de Reuters. .

The survey of 31 economists and analysts predicted Brent crude would common $74.33 a barrel in 2025, down from November’s forecast of $74.53, marking an eighth consecutive downward revision .

World benchmark Brent crude has averaged round $80 a barrel to date this 12 months and was poised for a 3% annual decline on account of weakening demand from high importer China .

U.S. crude is predicted to common $70.86 a barrel in 2025, up from $70.69 anticipated final month.

“Rising manufacturing from non-OPEC nations is predicted to maintain the market properly equipped. Though an financial restoration in China is predicted, the shift to electrical automobiles is more likely to restrict demand progress,” stated Sehul Bhatt, analysis director at CRISIL. .

Most respondents count on the oil market to be in surplus subsequent 12 months, with JPMorgan analysts forecasting that offer will exceed demand by as a lot as 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd).

OPEC+, which produces about half of the world’s oil, at its December assembly pushed again the beginning of accelerating oil manufacturing by three months to April 2025 and prolonged the complete finish of oil manufacturing by a 12 months. manufacturing reductions, till the tip of 2026.

“The choice was pushed by the expectation that non-OPEC+ provide progress will outpace demand progress in 2025. This leaves restricted room for OPEC+ to extend manufacturing…we count on an additional delay in implementing the reductions till the fourth quarter of 2025,” stated Florian Grunberger. , senior analyst at information and analytics firm Kpler.

World oil demand is predicted to develop between 0.4 million and 1.3 million bpd in 2025, in keeping with the survey. This compares to OPEC’s 2025 progress estimate of 1.45 million bpd.

Markets are additionally bracing for substantial coverage modifications, together with tariffs, deregulation and tax modifications, as Donald Trump is predicted to return to the White Home in January 2025.

“Generally, we predict U.S. coverage issues lower than many suppose with regards to its influence on oil costs and the U.S. oil and gasoline sector,” stated Kim Fustier, head of oil and gasoline analysis. European at HSBC.

Nevertheless, the Trump administration’s implementation of enhanced sanctions on Iranian oil exports may assist oil costs within the close to time period, some analysts famous.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Brijesh Patel in Bangalore, further reporting by Swati Verma)