Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Predictions: Christmas Day NBA odds, picks and participant props

On Christmas Day, the Dallas Mavericks host the Minnesota Timberwolves at American Airways Heart. This needs to be an thrilling a part of the five-game NBA slate. Preserve studying to seek out out the chances, picks, and participant props for this recreation, and make sure you verify again as nicely Our live VSiN programming For additional evaluation. Our gifted hosts and analysts are certain to spend a while speaking about these video games.

MORE: Head over to our Pro Picks page for the best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

Find out how to watch the Timberwolves vs. Mavericks recreation

when: Wednesday, December 25 at 2:30 PM ET

the place: American Airways Heart in Dallas, Texas

channel: ABC/ESBN/ESBN+

Timberwolves vs Mavericks odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. They will change. Go searching for the very best costs!

Cash line: Mavericks -218, Timberwolves +180

Unfold: Mavericks -5.5 (-108), Timberwolves +5.5 (-112)

the entire: Greater than 221.5 (-110), lower than 221.5 (-110)

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks evaluation

When this recreation first grew to become out there, the Mavericks had been a three-point favourite. The distinction is now 5.5 in most locations. Realistically, it is fairly straightforward to see why. The Mavericks had been one of many high 5 groups in basketball this season. They completed fourth in adjusted web ranking (+5.3), an offense that was unattainable to cease. However Dallas has additionally been stable defensively this season, and we all know this group is able to securing that finish of the ground. We noticed it when the Mavericks beat the Timberwolves in 5 video games within the Western Convention Finals final 12 months. In the meantime, Minnesota enters this recreation on a three-game shedding streak, and we have seen Jekyll and Hyde performs from this group all 12 months. Earlier than these final three video games, the group had gained six of their earlier seven video games and gave the impression to be attempting to determine issues out. With that in thoughts, which Timberwolves group will emerge?

I feel there is a risk that Finch might steal Christmas. Underneath Chris Finch, the Timberwolves are 24-6 towards the margins when taking part in on the highway after shedding three of their earlier 4 video games. Minnesota additionally gained these video games by a mean of two.9 factors per recreation. Finch is simply an excellent strategist and I might love for him to patch issues up a bit after the loss to Atlanta on Monday. As dangerous as issues have regarded for the Timberwolves this 12 months, the group nonetheless ranks fourth within the NBA in adjusted defensive ranking (+108.3). And Dunks & Threes’ predictive EPM ranked third in Minnesota. This group remains to be an elite defensive group, even when the group has had some lackluster stretches. And though Minnesota is simply twenty first in adjusted offensive ranking (110.5), lots of that’s subjective.

Anthony Edwards is simply 20-for-56 from the ground and 8-for-25 from 3 during the last three video games, and it is laborious to win video games when your greatest participant is taking pictures like that. However Edwards has been getting lots of attractiveness, so it is solely a matter of time earlier than he snaps out of this droop. And I do not suppose you possibly can rule out the potential for him doing it on a Nationwide Christmas Day stage.

I’ve additionally shared these ideas on Minnesota all year long, however a part of the rationale the group introduced in Julius Randle is due to how Dallas defended within the playoffs final 12 months. The Mavericks had been sending further assist to Edwards, attacking him at any time when humanly potential. Minnesota did not have any gamers who might create sufficient offense to make Dallas pay. Nicely, Randle can try this. Whereas it looks as if everybody on the planet has some destructive ideas about this large, highly effective participant, this participant is averaging 20.0 factors, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per recreation. He is an excellent offensive participant, and he’ll get pleasure from taking part in this recreation in his hometown of Dallas.

If Edwards will get his taking pictures again on observe, and Randle continues to be a harmful second possibility, Minnesota will simply want some position gamers to hit 3s to make this a recreation. This has been one other downside for the Timberwolves. Guys aren’t hitting the photographs they usually hit. Nevertheless, gamers have a tendency to organize for such video games, and Minnesota hopes to get again on observe in a gathering with the elite group within the Western Convention. So, I count on an excellent defensive effort, and I feel the execution on offense will likely be a bit of sharper.

In fact, Luka Doncic has been on a tear with the Mavericks currently, and a group with him and Kyrie Irving can at all times choose out. So, this isn’t a protected guess, particularly with Dallas having the choice to poach Randle as a lot as potential. However the Timberwolves have some good choices to signal each gamers. Each Edwards and Jaden McDaniels will compete to protect Doncic, and Minnesota will possible discover some further minutes for nickel Alexander-Walker. He’s the group’s best choice for Irving. The Timberwolves simply should hope guys like Klay Thompson and PJ Washington do not get sizzling from 3. In the event that they do, it will be robust for Minnesota to outlive.

By the best way, it is value noting that the Mavericks are simply 44-52-2 ATS as 3.5 to 9.5 level favorites below Jason Kidd. There may be lots of floor to cowl, and they’re going to attempt to take action towards a hungry and gifted group.

I additionally do not hate the Underneath on this recreation, as these two groups defend at a excessive stage. Minnesota additionally performs at a gradual tempo, and the group will certainly attempt to decelerate Dallas right here. These groups additionally scored fewer than 222 factors in three of the 5 video games in final 12 months’s playoff collection, in addition to three of their 4 regular-season matchups final 12 months.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks participant props

Nickeal Alexander-Walker over 1.5 made 3s (+100)

Wolves will discover minutes for Alexander Walker. He’s the very best defender on the group and is a 43.0% three-point shooter. When these two groups met on October 29, Alexander-Walker performed 24 minutes and went 3-for-5 from deep. Nicely, I can see him taking part in a bit of nearer to twenty-eight minutes right here, and I would not be stunned if he makes some threes. The Mavericks did not should respect him in final 12 months’s playoff collection, as he had simply 3 factors on 16 factors within the 5 video games. However Alexander Walker is healthier than this present, and will likely be counted on to make some photographs right here.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Choose

Possibly I am ignoring some dangerous emotions with Minnesota, however the numbers let you know this group remains to be defending at an elite stage. The Timberwolves are additionally set to expertise some critical optimistic regression on offense, with a number of gamers taking pictures beneath their profession 3-point percentages. As soon as they begin flattening some photographs, they need to appear to be a group that may compete with the Mavericks. Why does not that occur on Christmas Day? Minnesota has misplaced three straight video games and would be the most determined group on this matchup. That is vital for one thing.

Possibly the Mavericks will be capable of get a detailed consequence right here. In spite of everything, they’ve higher offensive choices late within the recreation, and so they play as a extra cohesive unit than the Timberwolves. However Minnesota is not less than absolutely able to getting this factor to a disaster state of affairs.

Betting: Timberwolves +5.5 (-108 – 1.5 items)