NFL Wild Card Betting Tendencies

NFL Wild Card Betting Tendencies:

As I indicated in my first VSiN article this week titled NFL Playoff Trends and Systems, I’ve determined to change my method of sharing all the info and evaluation I’ve uncovered through the years for the postseason by breaking it up a bit into extra targeted items. As promised, I’ll nonetheless offer the round-by-round pattern and system evaluation. The primary in that sequence offers with the Wild Card spherical and the six video games we have now upcoming this weekend.

As soon as once more, we have now 14 groups nonetheless alive within the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. The Wild Card spherical will get rid of six of them. As standard, there are some favorites within the betting markets, however in each conferences, it looks as if a two/three horse race to make it to Las Vegas in February. Theoretically, the benefits would go to Detroit within the NFC and Kansas Metropolis within the AFC, as these two groups claimed the all-important #1 seeds, and would be the solely groups that needn’t fear about what transpires this weekend. Their playoff pushes start subsequent weekend. Nonetheless, contemplating that 2023 was the one time since 2018 that each #1’s reached the title recreation, there may be clearly so much to type out over the subsequent few weeks.

 

***Prime NFL Assets***

*Be a part of 1000’s of different sports activities bettors and unlock entry to picks, public betting splits knowledge, & the VSiN reside video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

As with every reoccurring sporting occasion, the NFL playoffs have gone by way of varied pattern patterns through the years, with some seasons being dominated by underdog and upstart groups, and others being comparatively predictable, with favorites taking good care of enterprise. Due to this ever-changing nature, it may be troublesome for bettors to thrive when utilizing previous playoff outcomes as a information. In previous eras, predicting the playoffs was normally as straightforward as taking a look at a workforce’s physique of labor, however there are certainly some essential statistical traits that lead groups to playoff success. 

How powerful can this playoff-betting train be when you simply wager blindly on latest traits? Nicely, take into account that each one highway groups have been on a 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS run within the Wild Card spherical heading into the 2022 video games. As luck would have it, the hosts then loved their finest Wild Card weekend in 5 years, going 5-1 SU and ATS. Street groups would get their revenge in 2023 nevertheless, going 4-2 ATS, just for the house groups of a yr in the past to bounce again with a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark. In the event you want betting totals, you could wish to take into account that Below was 16-8 within the prior 5 years to 2023, solely to see Over hit in 5 of six video games, then break up in 2024. Merely put, blindly enjoying something normally doesn’t have lasting success.

My handicapping strategies have modified all through these years as properly, as plainly recently, how a workforce is enjoying lately appears to have taken on an increasing number of significance. That doesn’t imply it’s an end-all issue, however it’s one space which I give important consideration. That line of pondering would bode properly for Baltimore, the Chargers, and Washington for this weekend, as these are the one NFL groups enjoying within the Wild Card spherical which might be using profitable streaks of three video games or extra at the moment. In the event you want my latest scores to explain which groups are at the moment enjoying finest, the highest eight are all playoff sure groups (BAL, DET, LAC, PHI, DEN, TB, GB, LAR).

For these questioning, just one Wild Card workforce during the last 11 seasons has performed in (and gained) the Tremendous Bowl recreation, and that workforce, after all, was Tampa Bay of three years in the past, because the Bucs began their run on this weekend as a #5 seed. Most specialists would level to Minnesota (+1600), Inexperienced Bay (+1800), or the Chargers (+2800) because the groups able to rising from a Wild Card spot this season, however at 16-1 odds or worse to win the title, these groups are nonetheless clear lengthy photographs.

It’s my annual ritual at the moment of yr to dig by way of the database of the latest playoff logs and see if we will uncover any ideas of the commerce which may assist us higher handicap this weekend’s Wild Card video games. I strive to have a look at all of it: house/highway situations, canine/favorites, strains, stats, you title it. Proceed studying to see what I’ve discovered, after which see when you can’t apply any of the findings to the upcoming weekend motion. I will probably be doing the very same factor for every of the rounds as we transfer in the direction of Tremendous Bowl LVIII subsequent month.

Common Wild Card Playoff ATS Tendencies

·  The outright winner owns some extent unfold document of 63-10-1 ATS (86.3%) within the final 74 Wild Card playoff video games! Win-no covers are considerably uncommon, so whatever the level unfold, when you can’t see the groups you’re betting on profitable the sport, you’re higher off not attempting to sneak a canopy in. It needs to be famous, nevertheless, that because the growth of the Wild Card playoffs in 2021, the outright winner in video games with strains of seven factors or extra have gone simply 6-4 ATS.

·  Street groups appear to have regained the sting on this spherical lately, notably on level spreads, going 18-18 SU and 22-14 ATS (61.1%) during the last seven seasons. Nonetheless, they’re simply 7-11 ATS during the last three seasons.

·  Underdogs are on a run of 17-8-1 ATS (63.6%) within the final 26 NFC Wild Card video games, with Inexperienced Bay, Washington, and the Rams lining up in that position this weekend.

·  Wild Card highway favorites have turn into more and more frequent in latest playoff seasons, as there have been 20 since 2008. These groups are 12-8 SU however 8-11-1 ATS (44.4%).  For 2025, we may see two, with the Chargers (-3) and Vikings (decide ’em) finest positioned to be such.

·  Residence favorites of greater than a TD (-7.5 or increased) within the Wild Card spherical are 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) since 2005, with Buffalo extending that pattern with a 31-17 win over Pittsburgh final yr. Street groups averaged simply 15.1 PPG in these contests. Baltimore and the Payments line up as heavy favorites for this weekend.

·  In the event you take into account strains of 9.5 factors or extra, Wild Card favored hosts this huge have now gained 15 straight video games outright whereas going 14-1 ATS (93.3%)! The common rating of the 14 video games has been 31.3-15.8. The lone ATS loss occurred in 2023, when Buffalo (-15) survived Miami 34-31. The Ravens are listed as 10-point favorites at house over Pittsburgh for 2025.

·  There was a definitive separation in success ranges of the Wild Card house groups within the Saturday and Sunday video games. Within the final 37 Saturday video games, house groups are 24-13 SU and 23-13-1 ATS (63.9%). In that very same span, house groups are 18-21 SU and 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) on Sundays. In the event you’re curious, within the 4 prior Monday evening video games, hosts are 3-1 SU and ATS since that custom started in 2022. In the event you recall, the 2024 video games between Buffalo and Pittsburgh was postponed from Sunday to Monday resulting from climate.

·  Together with the lone highway outright win final yr, Sunday NFC highway groups have been terrific, going 15-10 SU and 18-6-1 ATS (75%) within the final 25. Below the overall can be 18-7 (72%) in these video games.  The Packers-Eagles and Commanders-Buccaneers video games will take a look at each of those angles.

·  Within the 18 Wild Card matchups between divisional opponents since 2003, highway groups personal a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) edge (8-10 SU), nevertheless, hosts are on a four-game outright profitable streak. The Ravens-Steelers tilt is the lone WC divisional contest for 2025.

Wild Card Tendencies by Seed Quantity

·  #4 seeds are on a 22-14 SU and 22-12-2 ATS (64.7%) run during the last 18 Wild Card seasons, maybe underrated within the eyes of the specialists. This yr’s #4 seeds are Houston within the AFC and the Rams within the NFC.

·  Nothing else thought of, in blanket wagering, the #4 AFC seed has been the very best house betting possibility of the 4 decisions, going 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) during the last 19 seasons. This consists of Houston’s 45-14 upset win over Cleveland final yr. Houston is the #4 within the AFC once more for 2025.

·  Courting again to 2013, and after a pair of Unders on totals a yr in the past, that possibility on totals within the #3-#6 matchup is 18-5-1 (78.3%). For the document, the highway groups are on a 14-8 SU and 17-5 ATS (77.3%) surge within the sequence as properly. The #3-#6 matchups for 2025 are Ravens-Steelers and Washington-Tampa Bay.

·  #3 seeds that have been an underdog or lower than a 3.5-point favourite are simply 2-14 SU and ATS (12.5%) since 2004, scoring simply 17.2 PPG within the course of. Nonetheless, Detroit did snap a 13-game SU dropping skid on this pattern final yr with out masking the purpose unfold. Tampa Bay is a 3-point favourite as of press time over the Commanders.

·  Within the 4 expanded playoff seasons, we’ve solely seen the #7 seed win outright as soon as, that being final yr in Inexperienced Bay’s upset of Dallas. General, the #2 seeds are 7-1 SU and 5-2 ATS within the matchup. The final 4 video games involving the #2’s went Over the overall. This yr’s #2 seeds are Philadelphia (vs. Inexperienced Bay paradoxically) and Buffalo (vs. Denver).

Wild Card Tendencies Concerning Totals

·  Over has held the sting on totals because the playoff growth 4 years in the past, going 14-10 (58.3%).

·  The frequent sample within the final 13 years has proven that when highway groups have gained outright, Below the overall has a document of 23-8-2 (74.2%)! Residence groups scored simply 16.3 PPG in these highway wins.

·  Of the final 43 Wild Card video games with totals of 44 or increased, Below the overall is 27-15-1 (64.3%). Nonetheless, six of the eight went Over within the final two years. Eventually examine, the 4 video games on Sunday and Monday all present totals of no less than 45.5.

·  Eight of the final 11 Wild Card video games with closing totals of 40 or beneath went Over the overall, together with Buffalo-Pittsburgh final season.

·  Of the final 39 Sunday Wild Card video games, 26 have gone Below the overall (66.7%). Of the final 35 Saturday video games, Over the overall is 19-15-1 (55.9%). The prior MNF playoff contests went 3-1 Below the overall (75%).

·  In Wild Card video games anticipated to be tight, or with strains within the +3 to -3 vary for house groups, Below the overall is on a run of 20-10-1 (66.7%). The Chargers-Texans, Commanders-Buccaneers, and Vikings-Rams video games all match this invoice as of Wednesday.

·  The final 5 Wild Card video games not anticipated to be as aggressive, or these with strains of -7 or increased, have gone Over. They’re 8-2 Over within the final 10 as properly. Think about the Steelers-Ravens and Broncos-Payments recreation totals when you discover benefit on this angle.

Stats Generated in Wild Card Playoff Video games

·  Solely seven house groups which have hit the 21-point mark have misplaced within the final 23 years of Wild Card playoff motion, going 54-7 SU and 44-16-1 ATS (73.3%). Final yr, there was a loss on this angle, with Dallas falling at house 48-32 to the Packers. The 5 house groups for this weekend aside from Houston are all anticipated to attain 21 or extra factors in line with the chances/complete mixture.

·  Solely three house groups that scored 20 factors or fewer in a Wild Card playoff recreation have gained within the final 23 years, going 3-36 SU and 3-35-1 ATS (7.9%)! The final time it occurred was in 2018, a 10-3 resolution with Buffalo edging Jacksonville. The Texans are solely anticipated to attain 19.5 factors on Saturday, in line with the chances/complete mixture.

·  The magic level complete for highway groups is 20 factors. Groups arising shy of that within the Wild Card spherical have misplaced 10 straight video games outright and are 6-45 SU and 7-44 ATS (13.7%) since 2002. Street groups reaching that 20-point complete have been 37-22 SU and 44-13-2 ATS (77.2%) in that very same span, together with 2-0 ATS final yr.

·  Groups that achieve extra first downs within the recreation are 25-10-1 ATS (71.4%) within the final 13 Wild Card playoff seasons

·  Groups that win the time of possession battle are on a 16-7 SU and ATS (69.6%) run within the Wild Card playoffs.

·  Wild Card playoff groups that achieve extra yards dashing of their playoff video games are 23-5 SU and 22-6 ATS (75%) during the last 5 seasons. On the similar time, groups that rush for extra yards per try in a Wild Card playoff recreation are simply 16-8 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) of their final 24. In the event you take into account the muse behind this, getting massive performs on the bottom isn’t as necessary as controlling the road of scrimmage or piling up dashing yards to place groups away late.

·  Placing up massive passing numbers in Wild Card playoff video games has not been as massive part of a recipe of success the final seven seasons, since these groups are solely 18-18 SU and 21-15 ATS (62.3%) in that point. Groups typically amass massive passing numbers in catch-up mode.

·  Alternatively, groups that profit from their passing alternatives or hit massive performs are much more profitable in the long run. The truth is, groups gaining extra yards per cross try in a Wild Card playoff recreation are 50-10 SU and 48-11-1 ATS (75.6%) since 2012. All however one of many 24 outright winners from the final 4 yr’s Wild Card rounds threw for extra passing yards per try. That is clearly an enormous stat to try to venture pregame.

·  The YPA stat has even confirmed barely extra beneficial than turnovers in Wild Card playoff video games, as groups committing fewer turnovers are 24-8 SU and ATS (75.8%) since 2015. In the remainder of the video games throughout that span, the turnover differential was even.

Summarizing these in-game stats findings, the flexibility to get massive performs by way of the passing recreation is an important ingredient. In the event you’re questioning which groups averaged extra yards per cross try on this weekend’s matchups, they’re the Chargers, Baltimore, Buffalo, Inexperienced Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. Nonetheless, defensively, the sides on this key stat go to Houston, Baltimore, Denver, Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota. Additionally, when handicapping these contests, attempt to formulate every workforce’s anticipated scoring output. Residence groups reaching 21 factors is essential, and the identical with highway groups getting to twenty. Which groups for this weekend can for certain try this?

Groups’ Common Season Received-Misplaced Document Pattern

·  If the final seven Wild Card playoff seasons have confirmed something, it’s that common season data don’t matter all that a lot on the subject of figuring out who will win. The truth is, groups that gained extra common season video games are simply 16-14 SU and 10-20-1 ATS (33.3%) in that span. In six matchups, the groups shared the identical won-lost mark.

·  For 2025, three hosts gained fewer video games than their opponent, the Texans, Buccaneers, and Rams. Residence groups that gained fewer video games throughout the season than their Wild Card opponents are on a 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS (60%) run.

·  Residence groups that gained 9 video games or fewer throughout the common season are on a 9-6 SU and 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) run within the Wild Card playoffs. Surprisingly, hosts that gained 12 or extra video games have a far worse document at 10-9 SU and 5-14 ATS (42.9%) since 2015, together with 5 straight ATS setbacks. Word that the Payments, Ravens, and Eagles all gained no less than 12 video games, whereas no hosts for this weekend gained fewer than 10 video games.

·  Understand that the schedule expanded to 17 video games just a few years in the past, however nonetheless, groups that gained 11 or extra video games and have been compelled to play on the highway within the Wild Card spherical misplaced all three video games a yr in the past each SU and ATS and are simply 13-18 SU and 14-16-1 ATS (46.7%) since 2008. Alternatively, Wild Card guests that gained 9 video games or much less within the common season once more boast a superior level unfold document of 11-15 SU however 16-9-1 ATS (64%) since 2002. The 11+ win highway groups for this weekend are the Chargers, Inexperienced Bay, Washington, and Minnesota. There have been no playoff groups that gained fewer than 10 video games this yr.

·  There have been 12 Wild Card video games since 2006 which have matched pairs of groups that every gained no less than 11 video games within the common season. In these video games, highway groups are 5-7 SU however boast a powerful 8-4 ATS (66.7%) mark. The Inexperienced Bay-Philadelphia matchup is the one one to qualify for 2025.

Groups’ Common Season Offensive Statistics Tendencies

·  Groups that scored extra factors per recreation throughout the common season have gone simply 21-15 SU and 15-21 ATS (44.3%) within the final seven years. Together with 10-19 ATS (34.5%) when favored. Word that each one 5 present favorites outscored their opponent within the common season.

·  Dashing statistics have meant one thing on the subject of Wild Card playoff success recently, as groups who averaged extra dashing yards per recreation are 18-10 SU and ATS (64.3%) since 2020, together with 11-4 ATS (73.3%) as canine. Equally, people who averaged extra yards per rush have been 17-11 SU and ATS (60.7%) in that span. For these questioning, the one underdogs for this weekend that averaged extra RYPG are Houston and Washington.

·  Wild Card groups with an edge in offensive passing yardage are 21-5 SU however solely 16-20 ATS (44.4%) since 2018. Extra environment friendly passing yards per try have gotten sizzling within the final six Wild Card seasons, going 22-10 SU and 20-12 ATS (62.5%). The spotlight of this group is a 9-2 highway underdog document. I famous these earlier than, however a reminder that the groups with edges on this class in 2025 are Chargers, Baltimore, Buffalo, Inexperienced Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. The Packers are the one highway canine of the group.

·  Because the playoffs expanded to 14 groups in 2021, groups that generated extra yardage general offensively have struggled within the Wild Card spherical, going 15-9 SU however 10-14 ATS (41.7%). When contemplating yards per play, groups with higher offenses on this regard are on a 19-11 ATS (63.3%) surge at the moment, and highway underdogs with this edge are on a 16-4-1 ATS (80%) surge since 2003. Inexperienced Bay holds a 0.5 YPP edge over Philadelphia for Sunday’s matchup.

·  Offensive yards per level hasn’t confirmed to be as efficient of an offensive statistical indicator as different classes, as groups who’ve averaged fewer yards per level offensively are solely 22-18 SU and 16-24 ATS (40%) within the Wild Card playoffs courting again to 2017. Residence favorites with the sides on this are simply 9-16 ATS (36%) in that span. Three house favorites qualify for this weekend: Baltimore, Buffalo, and Philadelphia.

·  Groups that turned the ball over fewer instances within the common season than their opponent are 12-12 ATS (50%) since 2021 in Wild Card playoff video games, providing little benefit for handicappers.

·  Groups that transformed 3^rd downs alternatives extra effectively within the common season are 18-6 SU and 15-9 ATS (62.5%) within the final 4 expanded Wild Card playoff seasons, one thing to observe for this weekend. The groups with edges on this class are LA Chargers, Baltimore, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

Groups’ Common Season Defensive Statistics Tendencies

·  Groups that allowed fewer factors per recreation throughout the common season are on an prolonged 42-27 SU and 42-26-1 ATS (61.8%) run in Wild Card playoff motion, together with 19-5 ATS (79.2%) the final 4 seasons since playoff growth. The groups with the better-scoring defenses for this weekend are the Chargers, Pittsburgh, Denver, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

·  Groups that permit fewer dashing yards per recreation are 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) during the last 4 seasons within the Wild Card spherical. Those who allowed fewer yards per rush have been a bit worse on the betting window at 15-9 ATS (62.5%). That is an angle value contemplating, since good dashing defenses can power opposing offenses to turn into one-dimensional. For 2025, the groups with edges in each stats are Houston, Baltimore, Denver, Inexperienced Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

·  Wild Card groups with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are simply 14-14 SU and ATS (50%) during the last 5 seasons on this playoff spherical. Defensive cross effectivity is a curious statistic in that groups who’ve held the sting on this class are simply 14-20 ATS (41.2%) within the final 34 tries. In the event you recall, this was a much more influential offensive statistic.

·  Groups that allowed much less yardage general defensively have gone simply 14-18 SU and 15-17 ATS (46.9%) within the Wild Card spherical since ’19. Nonetheless, these Wild Card groups that held an edge in general yards allowed per play have been much more profitable at 14-9 SU and 16-7 ATS (53.1%) since playoff growth in 2021. For these curious, for this weekend, the groups with edges in defensive YPP are Houston, Baltimore, Denver, Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota.

·  Wild Card groups that made opposing offenses work more durable, or people who allowed extra offensive yards per level, have gained their Wild Card playoff video games at a 15-9 SU and 16-8 ATS (66.7%) price during the last 4 seasons. 2025 edges belong to the Chargers, Pittsburgh, Denver, Inexperienced Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. The Chargers, Broncos, and Vikings have been the highest three rated groups within the NFL.

·  Groups that compelled extra turnovers within the common season than their opponent are on a 14-22 ATS (38.9%) skid since 2017 in Wild Card playoff video games.

·  Stopping third-down alternatives extra effectively within the common season has additionally confirmed to be an irrelevant statistic within the Wild Card playoffs, as groups with edges on this are simply 12-20 ATS courting again to 2019.

Mixture Techniques Utilizing Offensive YPA, Defensive PPG, and Defensive RYPG

·  Utilizing our most impactful stat angles from above, groups that threw for extra yards per passing try and allowed fewer factors per recreation throughout the common season are on a 10-1 SU and ATS (90.9%) run in Wild Card playoff motion. The 2025 groups with edges in each are the Chargers, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

·  Equally, groups that threw for extra yards per passing try and allowed fewer dashing yards per recreation throughout the common season are on a 12-4 SU and ATS (75%) run in Wild Card playoff motion. The 2025 groups with edges in each are Baltimore, Inexperienced Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

Abstract

Though it takes up plenty of area within the article, it’s apparent that most of the analyzed statistics don’t imply as a lot as others; nevertheless, offensive cross effectivity, scoring protection, and dashing protection edges are value noting. That mentioned, the road vary traits, the seed angles, and the entire different traits and programs I famous within the general playoff article earlier this week should be given sturdy consideration when finalizing your performs. It needs to be one other thrilling Wild Card weekend to wager the video games, no matter what occurs. Good luck, and examine again subsequent week for the divisional spherical data.