By Orhan Qereman, Tom Perry and Tuvan Gumrukcu
QAMISHLI, Syria/BEIRUT/ANKARA (Reuters) – As Turkish-backed hostile teams mobilize in opposition to them in northern Syria and Damascus is dominated by an Ankara-friendly group, Syria’s foremost Kurdish factions are in retreat as they search to protect their political positive aspects. dug throughout 13 years of struggle.
A part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, the Kurds have up to now been among the many few winners within the Syrian battle, controlling practically 1 / 4 of the nation and main a robust armed group that may be a key ally of the USA. within the struggle in opposition to the Islamic State.
However the stability of energy has tilted in opposition to them because the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) invaded Damascus this month, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, two analysts and a senior Western diplomat informed Reuters.
The seismic shift in Syria is predicted to offer rise to stronger Turkish affect, simply as a change in U.S. administration raises questions on how lengthy Washington will proceed to assist the nation’s Kurdish-led forces.
For Turkey, the Kurdish factions symbolize a risk to nationwide safety. Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Employees’ Get together (PKK), which has waged an insurgency in opposition to the Turkish state since 1984 and is taken into account a terrorist group by Turkey, the USA and different powers.
Syrian Kurdish teams “are in actually huge bother,” stated Aron Lund, a researcher at Century Worldwide, a U.S.-based suppose tank.
“The stability has basically shifted in Syria to the benefit of factions supported or aligned with Turkey, and Turkey seems decided to use this to the fullest.”
This shift was mirrored in renewed combating for management of the north, the place Turkish-backed armed teams, referred to as the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA), made army advances in opposition to the Syrian Democratic Forces ( FDS) led by the Kurds.
Fanar al-Kait, a senior official within the Kurdish-led regional administration, informed Reuters that the ouster of Assad, whose Arab nationalist Ba’ath Get together oppressed the Kurds for many years, introduced a possibility to rebuild the fragmented nation.
He stated the administration was prepared to interact with Turkey, however that the battle within the north confirmed Ankara had “very unhealthy intentions.”
“This can definitely push the area in direction of… new battle,” he added.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Friday he anticipated international states to withdraw assist for Kurdish fighters after Assad’s overthrow, as Ankara seeks to isolate the Folks’s Safety Models (YPG), the Kurdish militia that led the SDF alliance.
Responding to questions from Reuters, a Turkish official stated the basis explanation for the battle was “not Turkey’s imaginative and prescient for the area; however the truth that the PKK/YPG is a terrorist group.”
“PKK/YPG parts should lay down their arms and go away Syria,” the official stated.
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, in an interview with Reuters on Thursday, acknowledged for the primary time the presence of PKK fighters in Syria, saying that they had helped struggle Islamic State and would return residence if a complete ceasefire was concluded with Turkey. He denied any organizational hyperlinks with the PKK.
FEMINISM AND ISLAMISM
In the meantime, in Damascus, the brand new leaders are heat to Ankara and point out they need to convey all of Syria again underneath central authority – a possible problem to the decentralization favored by the Kurds.
Though Turkey offers direct assist to the SNA, it, like different states, considers HTS a terrorist group resulting from its historical past with Al-Qaeda.
Regardless of this, Ankara seems to exert vital affect over the group. A senior Western diplomat stated: “The Turks can clearly affect them greater than anybody else.”
HTS chief Ahmed al-Sharaa informed a Turkish newspaper that Assad’s ouster was “not solely the victory of the Syrian folks, but in addition the victory of the Turkish folks.”
The Turkish official stated HTS was not and by no means had been underneath Ankara’s management, calling it a construction “that we communicated with resulting from circumstances” and including that many Western states did in order nicely.
Syrian Kurdish teams led by the Democratic Union Get together (PYD) and affiliated YPG militia took management of a lot of the north after the rebellion in opposition to Assad started in 2011. They established their very own administration, whereas insisting that their aim was autonomy, not independence.
Their politics, which emphasize socialism and feminism, differ radically from the Islamism of HTS.
Their space has expanded as U.S.-led forces have joined forces with the SDF within the marketing campaign in opposition to Islamic State, capturing majority-Arab areas.
SNA teams, backed by Turkey, intensified their marketing campaign in opposition to the SDF as Assad was being overthrown, seizing the city of Manbij on December 9.
Washington negotiated a ceasefire, however the SDF stated Turkey and its allies had not revered it, and a Turkish Protection Ministry official stated no such settlement had existed.
US assist for the SDF is a degree of rigidity with its NATO ally Turkey. Washington views the SDF as a key associate within the struggle in opposition to the Islamic State, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken says will attempt to use this era to reestablish its capabilities in Syria. The FDS nonetheless retains tens of hundreds of detainees linked to the militant group.
Turkish Protection Minister Yasar Guler stated final weekend that Turkey noticed no indicators of a resurgence of the Islamic State in Syria. On Friday, Turkish Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan informed his German counterpart throughout talks in Ankara that alternate options should be discovered for the administration of camps and prisons the place detainees are held.
Individually, US Assistant Secretary of State for Close to Japanese Affairs Barbara Leaf stated Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the SDF to search out “a managed transition when it comes to the position of the SDF on this a part of the nation.”
President Joe Biden’s administration has stated US troops will stay in Syria, however President-elect Donald Trump might withdraw them when he takes workplace on January 20.
LETTER TO Trump
Throughout his first administration, Trump tried to withdraw from Syria however confronted stress domestically and from U.S. allies.
In a letter to Trump on Dec. 17 seen by Reuters, senior Syrian Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed stated Turkey was getting ready to invade the northeast earlier than he took workplace.
The Turkish plan “threatens to undo years of progress in making certain stability and combating terrorism,” she wrote. “We imagine you have got the facility to stop this disaster.”
Requested for remark, Trump-Vance transition spokesman Brian Hughes stated: “We proceed to observe the state of affairs in Syria. President Trump is dedicated to decreasing threats to peace and stability within the Center East and defending Individuals right here at residence. »
Trump stated on Dec. 16 that Turkey would “maintain the important thing” to what occurs in Syria, however didn’t announce his plans for stationing U.S. forces there.
“The Kurds are in an unenviable place,” stated Joshua Landis, an professional on Syria on the College of Oklahoma. “As soon as Damascus consolidates its energy, it’ll transfer to the area. The US can’t keep there without end.”
HTS chief Sharaa informed British broadcaster BBC that the Kurds have been “a part of our folks” and “there needs to be no division of Syria”, including that the weapons needs to be fully within the palms of the state.
Sharaa acknowledged one in all Turkey’s foremost issues – the presence of non-Syrian Kurdish fighters in Syria – and stated: “We don’t settle for that Syrian lands threaten and destabilize Turkey or different locations.”
He pledged to work via dialogue and negotiations to search out “a peaceable system to resolve the issue”, believing that first contacts had been established “between the Kurds of north-east Syria and the FDS”.
Kait, the Kurdish official, stated his administration wished “a democratic Syria, a decentralized Syria, a Syria that represents all Syrians of all sects, religions and ethnicities,” describing them as purple strains. The SDF could be “a core of the long run Syrian military,” he added.
SDF commander Abdi, in his interview with Reuters, confirmed that contacts had been established with the HTS to keep away from clashes between their forces, however stated Ankara would attempt to drive a wedge between Damascus and the administration led by the Kurds.
He nonetheless asserted that there was sturdy assist from worldwide events, together with the US-led coalition, for the SDF to hitch “the brand new political section” in Damascus, calling it a “nice alternative “.
“We’re getting ready, after an entire ceasefire between us and between Turkey and affiliated factions, to hitch this section,” he stated.
(Orhan Qereman reported from Qamishli, Syria, Tom Perry from Beirut and Tuvan Gumrukcu from Ankara; extra reporting by John Irish in Paris, Humeyra Pamuk in Washington and Daren Butler in Istanbul; writing by Tom Perry; modifying by Alexandra Zavis)
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