By Laurie Chen, James Pomfret, Antoni Slodkowski
BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) – Simply over a yr in the past, China gave Bashar al-Assad and his spouse a heat welcome throughout their six-day go to to the nation, providing former Syrian chief a uncommon break after years of worldwide isolation because the begin of a civil warfare in 2011.
Because the couple attended the Asian Video games, President Xi Jinping pledged to help Assad in “opposing exterior interference” and rebuilding Syria, whereas his spouse Asma was celebrated in Chinese language media.
However the abrupt finish to the rule of the authoritarian chief so explicitly supported by Xi final yr dealt a blow to China's diplomatic ambitions within the Center East and uncovered the boundaries of its technique within the area, analysts say.
A coalition of rebels seized the Syrian capital Damascus on Sunday after a lightning offensive that toppled Assad's regime and ended his household's 50-year dynasty.
“There was an inflated sense of China's means to form coverage outcomes within the area,” mentioned Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow on the Atlantic Council.
Whereas the collapse of the Assad regime has had the impact of decreasing the affect within the Arab world of its fundamental supporters, Iran and Russia, additionally it is a blow to the worldwide ambitions of the China, Fulton mentioned.
“A lot of what (China) does internationally depends on help from these international locations, and its failure to help its largest companion within the Center East speaks volumes about its means to do a lot past the area.”
Addressing Scorching Spots
After China brokered a deal between longtime rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, Chinese language media welcomed Beijing's rising visibility in a neighborhood lengthy dominated by Washington.
Wang Yi, China's high diplomat, mentioned his nation would play a constructive function in dealing with international “sizzling points”.
China additionally brokered a truce between Fatah, Hamas and different rival Palestinian factions earlier this yr and has made repeated requires a ceasefire in Gaza.
However regardless of the presence of Center Japanese leaders in Beijing and the sequence of “shuttle diplomacy” led by its envoy to the Center East, Zhai Jun, within the months that adopted, the Palestinians didn’t kind a authorities of unity and the battle in Gaza continues.
“The sudden fall of Assad shouldn’t be a situation Beijing desires to see,” mentioned Fan Hongda, a Center East specialist at Shanghai Worldwide Research College. “China prefers a extra secure and impartial Center East, as a result of chaos or a pro-American orientation within the area doesn’t go well with its pursuits.”
The Chinese language Overseas Ministry's response to Assad's fall has been reasonable, specializing in the security of Chinese language nationals and calling for a “political answer” to revive stability in Syria as quickly as potential.
Overseas Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning appeared to depart a gap for engagement with the longer term authorities on Monday: “China's pleasant relations with Syria are addressed to all of the Syrian individuals,” she mentioned. -she declared.
Chinese language specialists and diplomats say Beijing will now bide its time earlier than recognizing a brand new authorities in Damascus.
It might use its experience and monetary muscle to help reconstruction, they are saying, however its commitments will possible be restricted as China has sought to reduce abroad monetary dangers lately.
Syria joined China's flagship Belt and Street initiative in 2022, however no vital investments have been made by Chinese language corporations since, partly resulting from sanctions.
China “shouldn’t be actually able to essentially changing the West, both as an financial companion or a diplomatic or army pressure within the area,” mentioned Invoice Figueroa, an assistant professor on the College of Groningen and an knowledgeable on China-Center East relations.
“China in 2024 has a lot much less cash than it did in 2013-2014, when the BRI was launched,” Figueroa mentioned. There’s “a transparent reassessment underway within the route of safer investments and general discount of dangers for China”, he added.
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