Cupboard warned Blair towards free motion of latest EU residents from Poland

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Senior members of the British cupboard warned Prime Minister Tony Blair in 2004 that free motion from new EU member states, together with Poland, might put monumental strain on the welfare system and housing, in keeping with not too long ago revealed paperwork.

The choice to permit migrants from ten central and jap European nations, together with Hungary and the Czech Republic, to work within the UK with few limits has led to a pointy improve in immigration.

In 2005, a 12 months after the choice, web migration from the EU to the UK reached 96,000 folks, in keeping with the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics, a pointy improve from 15,000 in 2003.

On the time of the Brexit referendum in 2016, this push contributed to migration a really controversial political problem.

Jack Straw, then overseas secretary, and John Prescott, deputy prime minister, expressed critical considerations earlier than the choice, recordsdata launched by the Cupboard Workplace present.

“We might face a really tough scenario if we get it mistaken,” Blair warned in a letter dated February 10, 2004.

He requested the Prime Minister to think about delaying the introduction of the coverage, saying it will enable Britain to “monitor the actions” of migrants to different nations earlier than a call is made on its implementation.

Whereas the UK, Eire and Sweden instantly allowed free motion in Might 2004 with minimal restrictions, many different nations, together with France and Germany, selected to delay full entry to their labor market, citing their fears of mass migration. Nations had the choice to impose restrictions till Might 1, 2011.

The UK’s determination was partly based mostly on a Residence Workplace evaluation that solely 5,000 to 13,000 migrants would arrive every year from the brand new EU members. Nevertheless, this turned out to be an enormous underestimate.

Annual web migration from EU member states had reached 142,000 in 2014, in keeping with ONS estimates on the time, fueling a debate over British membership of the EU.

On February 16, 2004, Prescott wrote to Blair, formally urging him to delay. As Deputy Prime Minister, he raised considerations about housing, with migrants anticipated to go to London and the South East to search for work, with “the seemingly consequence” being “overcrowded housing in neighborhoods poor” as a result of incapability to pay hire.

Straw instructed the Monetary Occasions: “As occasions would present, we have been mistaken. »

“If we had had stable proof of the impact of our lifting of restrictions on immigration to the UK, I’m clear that we might by no means have agreed to raise them,” he added.

“Sustaining the restrictions would, in hindsight, have made a distinction. . . the results of the 2016 referendum; it’s inconceivable to say if that’s sufficient to tip him over,” he stated.

Beforehand unpublished paperwork launched by the Nationwide Archives present that Blair took these considerations into consideration, questioning officers about whether or not an preliminary proposed “work allow” was sensible. Nevertheless, he in the end spoke out towards such a coverage.

A July 2 briefing paper for Blair confirmed that 9,000 employees had registered to work within the UK within the two months after Might 1, and that fifty,000 to 60,000 employees might arrive within the first 12 months.

Officers warned of the “elephant entice” of media reporting the numbers.

To counter accusations that the arrivals would result in a surge in profit claims, Blair requested officers to “flow into via our media” stories that Poles would like to work illegally in Germany relatively than legally within the UK.

He requested councilors to make sure they put in place “the strictest attainable advantages bundle” to counter probably extreme calls for from new EU migrants.

Blair declined to remark.