Faculty Soccer Finest Bets December December 31-January 4 from Steve Makinen

It was a really irritating vacation week for my bowl finest bets as I both received them handily, misplaced them definitively, or misplaced them in heartbreaking style. I didn’t pull out something I assumed I had misplaced. Regrettably, I put a variety of religion in ACC groups as properly. It’s been that sort of run currently, sadly. Proper now, I’m 15-16-1 ATS within the “postseason.” That places my season report at 142-132-6 ATS (51.8%) with video games by way of 12/28. For this subsequent set of video games, I will likely be protecting the remainder of the prescheduled video games from 12/31-1/4, together with all 4 of the CFP quarterfinal video games. So, let’s get proper to my faculty soccer finest bets, 12 video games to undergo…

 

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ReliaQuest Bowl – Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, Florida

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

For as a lot as I want I might have chosen to put in writing this Alabama-Michigan sport up earlier, I’ve to just accept the road of -14 as somebody who will likely be backing Alabama. It’s a must to marvel what this line might need been with out the Wolverines’ upset of Ohio State thought-about. Clearly, there’s a variety of motivation in a sport like that, going in opposition to essentially the most fierce rival of all. This sport is not going to have the identical power. Head coach Sherron Moore and Michigan received their “Tremendous Bowl” already. This explicit contest will likely be greater for Kalen DeBoer and the Tide in his quest to get began on 2025 already. 

Talking of the coaches, with Moore heading his first bowl sport, this technique will likely be in play: First-time bowl sport head coaches have actually struggled during the last eight seasons, going 38-55 SU and 37-55-1 ATS (40.2%) vs. non-first-year coaches! I additionally talked about that I wanted I had received the road earlier after it opened at -9.5. Nonetheless, with the quantity the place it’s now, we have to recall that heading into 2024 bowl season, in bowl video games between 1992-2024 that had closing strains greater than 4 factors off of their opening line, the workforce that the road moved in the direction of is 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%). 

There are additionally just a few attention-grabbing traits to contemplate: 1) SEC groups have gone 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS within the final 9 editions of the ReliaQuest Bowl 2) Favorites have received the final seven Alabama bowl video games SU and ATS and three) Huge Ten groups are on a 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS skid as double-digit underdogs in bowl video games. I search for the Tide to roll right here.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I received Alabama -14 versus Michigan

Tony the Tiger Solar Bowl – Solar Bowl Stadium – El Paso, Texas

Tuesday, December 31, 2 p.m.

For as a lot as the road for Solar Bowl has dumped in the direction of Washington, I simply can’t on board that aspect due to what I wrote in my Seven Motivational Components article: “Louisville was a much better workforce than Washington this season, and though QB Tyler Shough is opting out of the Solar Bowl to prepare for the NFL draft, the road for the sport (-2.5 on the time) doesn’t do justice to the disparity of the power of the groups. 

The Huskies misplaced all six highway/impartial video games they performed this season, all in opposition to bowl groups, and the final 4 all by 14 factors or extra. My energy scores say they’re 10.5 factors worse than the Cardinals, who had spectacular wins over the likes of Georgia Tech and Clemson and close to misses in opposition to Notre Dame and Miami. QB or not, this line needs to be regarded by head coach Jeff Brohm’s workforce as disrespectful. With that in thoughts, and the entire dumping, I don’t see Brohm taking his foot off the pedal offensively. He by no means has in bowl video games, having gone Over the entire in all seven prior bowl video games, with these producing 81.7 PPG on common! For what it’s value, the final six Solar Bowl video games with totals of lower than 51 went Over the entire.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I’m going to again an OVER 49 on the entire in Louisville-Washington

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl – Tenting World Stadium – Orlando, Florida

Tuesday, December 31, 3 p.m.

The Cheez-it Bowl line has reached -10 in favor of South Carolina. To me, that may be a very huge deal due to just a few traits that I’ve run throughout in my bowl sport analysis. First, Huge Ten groups are on a 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS skid as double-digit underdogs in bowl video games. Second, this bowl collection reveals a tremendous development that outright winners are on a 23-0 ATS run in Citrus Bowl video games since 2002. It will appear loads simpler to put 10 factors with a development like that looming. 

Extra concerning the Citrus Bowl historical past, Huge Ten groups are simply 2-10 SU and ATS of their final 12 Citrus Bowl appearances, and favorites are on 11-3 SU and ATS run within the final 14 Citrus Bowl video games, together with 5 straight. If that weren’t sufficient, favorites have swept the final seven Illinois bowl video games SU and ATS. 

Head Coach Shane Beamer of the Gamecocks has been outwardly captivated with this chance for his workforce. That they had an amazing season, going 9-3, upsetting the likes of Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Clemson alongside the way in which. I’d be shocked to see them not present up with an opportunity to shut out a program-building season in positive style.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I’ll lay the 10-points with South Carolina

Kinder’s Texas Bowl – NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas

Tuesday, December 31, 3:30 p.m.

I learn a New Orleans native newspaper’s preview of the Texas Bowl, and it centered round how a shorthanded LSU workforce may pull off the shock on Baylor. Two of the 4 key factors had been on establishing the run and dealing in younger gamers efficiently. Inform me, does that sound just like the Tigers’ workforce we’ve watched this season or one which followers simply hope “reveals up” for the competition? 

This sport has a considerably ugly really feel to it in that Baylor, a workforce from Texas, will likely be way more occupied with enjoying. It’s no marvel the road has moved from LSU -2.5 at opening to Baylor -4 as of Monday. As such, we should recall that heading into 2024 bowl season, in bowl video games between 1992-2024 that had closing strains greater than 4 factors off of their opening line, the workforce that the road moved in the direction of is 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%). 

There are two explicit traits that ought to make you snug laying factors right here. First, outright winners are 21-1-1 ATS within the historical past of the Texas Bowl collection. Second, outright winners are an ideal 13-0 ATS within the final 13 Baylor bowl video games. The Bears’ latest bowl video games have been definitive. Lastly, contemplating that Baylor got here from 3-9 final season, do not forget that groups that received 0-3 video games (25% or much less) the prior season and certified for a bowl sport the subsequent are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) during the last 9 bowl seasons when matched in opposition to a workforce not in that scenario. Vanderbilt was one in every of these groups earlier and performed very properly.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I’ll again Baylor laying the 4 factors versus LSU

CFP Quarterfinal on the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl – State Farm Stadium – Glendale, Arizona

Tuesday, December 31, 7:30 p.m.

Each Penn State and Boise State received into shootouts with Oregon this season, and each misplaced in single-score choices. That was the one widespread opponent. It additionally occurs to be the one sport the Broncos misplaced all season. For those who’re questioning whether or not or not Boise State can match up bodily with the Nittany Lions and the Huge Ten right here, that’s the one contest I might level to for a definitive sure. 

How else can we measure the power ranges of two groups from vastly completely different conferences? Effectively, how about my Efficient Energy Rankings, which formulate within the varied schedule power variations between groups. My numbers present Penn State at +35.2 after their demolishing of SMU within the first-round playoff sport. My ESR for Boise State is +25.7. This implies there’s a 9.5-point distinction between the groups, not 11.5, as the present line signifies.

I feel there’s a little bit an excessive amount of being made in regards to the win over SMU, which was at State Faculty, and the Mustangs had been clearly overwhelmed by the circumstances. I don’t see that taking place right here in Glendale, the place the Broncos have performed earlier than, and performed properly. With 56% of the bets at DraftKings on Boise as of Monday, 12/30, I anticipate this to be a really aggressive sport.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I’ll take Boise State +11.5 within the Fiesta Bowl

CFP Quarterfinal on the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl – Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta

Wednesday, January 1, 1:00 p.m. ET

Texas seemed very robust in its playoff opening-round win over Clemson, though in the long run, it was the one one of many 4 video games the place it seemed like the favourite might be in hassle by way of protecting the purpose unfold. Two key variations between that sport and this one should you ask me. One, the sport was in Austin. Two, ASU figures to be a extra bodily workforce that Clemson was, particularly since pounding RB Phil Mafah missed many of the sport for the Tigers. For those who watched any of the Huge 12 title sport versus Iowa State, you noticed a dominant bodily effort by the Solar Devils and, particularly, RB Cam Skattebo. ASU received that sport 45-19. 

Don’t overlook, Texas, a veteran workforce that returned a variety of gamers from the 2023 playoff workforce, solely beat the Cyclones 26-16 within the season finale final yr. The Peach Bowl has a historical past of underdogs arising huge, as they’re 21-9-1 ATS since 1993. From a motivational standpoint, how huge of a chip on the shoulder will head coach Kenny Dillingham’s workforce have right here too? 

They’ve been preventing off naysayers all season after a 3-9 marketing campaign in 2023.  Groups that received 0-3 video games (25% or much less) the prior season and certified for a bowl sport the subsequent are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) during the last 9 bowl seasons when matched in opposition to a workforce not in that scenario. Additionally, groups that improved by 6+ wins (or by 50%+) from the prior common season are on an 18-7 ATS (70.8%) run in bowl video games as underdogs.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: To me, Arizona State +12.5 is a really reside underdog

CFP Quarterfinal on the Rose Bowl Sport – Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California

Wednesday, January 1, 5 p.m. ET

What a titanic tilt for this yr’s Rose Bowl sport, a rematch of an earlier season battle between Ohio State and Oregon in Eugene. The Geese received that sport 32-31 as 3.5-point canine at some extent within the season through which they hadn’t actually hit their stride but. In reality, at that time, they went into the sport with a 1-4 ATS mark. Together with that end result, they’re 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS since, outscoring groups 36.5-18.3. 

The Geese received some video games in some new and fairly robust environments. One place that hasn’t been a troublesome surroundings for the Geese has been Pasadena, as they’ve received three straight Rose Bowl appearances, placing up 44.3 PPG within the course of. In fact, the Buckeyes additionally love enjoying at Pasadena as properly, with 4 straight wins on their ledger. So, what does this sport come right down to for me? Most likely, like a lot of you, understanding why OSU is favored in opposition to the undefeated #1 seed. 

My efficient power indicators type of inform the story should you ask me. I’ve OSU at +42.9, Oregon at +35.4. In reality, head coach Dan Lanning’s workforce ranked #9 within the nation in that key power metric on the finish of the season. Additionally, should you have a look at the latest historical past of the “Grandaddy of all of them,” favorites are on a 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS run within the final 17 years of Rose Bowl video games as a result of there’s by no means any scarcity of motivation to play on this one. HC Ryan Day’s workforce opened as a 1-point favourite. It has since been guess as much as -2.5. I feel righteously.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I’ll lay the two.5-points with Ohio State in Pasadena

CFP Quarterfinal on the Allstate Sugar Bowl – Caesars Superdome – New Orleans

Wednesday, January 1, 8:45 p.m. ET

In all honesty, to me, it seems as if oddsmakers haven’t even taken a deduction of any kind for Georgia QB Carson Beck’s season-ending damage suffered within the SEC championship sport. Now granted, backup Gunnar Stockton performed fairly properly in aid of Beck in that sport. Ultimately, it led his workforce to a exceptional comeback win, however he did it with toughness and sport administration. 

Is head coach Kirby Sensible’s workforce going to have the ability to beat a workforce as robust on either side of the ball as Notre Dame with that technique for 60 minutes? I assume Stockton will likely be higher come New 12 months’s Day by way of his rhythm with the first-unit Bulldogs’ offense, however they actually couldn’t even throw the ball downfield with any success in opposition to the Longhorns. I might put the Irish protection up in opposition to primarily any workforce within the nation proper now. Possibly the offense, too, whereas we’re at it. 

In reality, my Efficient Energy Ranking reveals Notre Dame at +40.1 heading into this sport and Georgia at +35.7, and that’s with none deduction for Beck. He needs to be value not less than 3 factors right here – doesn’t he? In spite of everything, he did have nearly 35 profession begins for this system. 

To my shock, once I checked the DK betting splits page on VSiN.com on Monday, I discovered that 79% of the deal with was backing Georgia. I do know traditionally that the Irish haven’t been an enormous sport workforce, however I’m satisfied this yr’s workforce is completely different and head coach Marcus Freeman’s workforce has been constructing for this second. I consider the fallacious workforce is favored right here and since outright winners are 23-1-1 ATS since 2000 within the Sugar Bowl, we would as properly bounce proper into the cash line.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I’m going with Notre Dame to win the Sugar Bowl

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – EverBank Stadium – Jacksonville, Florida

Thursday, January 2, 7:30 p.m. ET

From all indications, Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart and most of his different pro-bound teammates are embracing their likelihood to play one ultimate sport for the Rebels within the Gator Bowl. They’re a hefty favourite in opposition to Duke, however in my view, nowhere close to hefty sufficient. That is the bowl season’s largest mismatch, in response to my energy scores, and that was even earlier than Duke QB Maalik Murphy transferred out. 

My present PR’s are Ole Miss 65.5 and Duke 46.5. My Efficient Energy Rankings present an excellent higher disparity 39.6-17.2. And, as Murphy was such an enormous a part of the Blue Devils’ offense this season, I consider he necessitates not less than a 4-point docking. In different phrases, I really feel this level unfold ought to simply be within the 20’s, not 17. If I do know something about Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin too, he will likely be forthright about ensuring his workforce covers the massive unfold too. From a development perspective, take into account that favorites are on a run of 23-3 SU and 18-8 ATS in Gator Bowl video games.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: Attempt convincing me that Ole Miss (-17) received’t rout Duke

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl – Gerald J. Ford Stadium – Dallas

Friday, January 3, 4:00 p.m. ET

You don’t see too many in-state proving floor sorts of video games in bowl season, particularly these that aren’t performed within the groups’ yard. Effectively, the First Responder Bowl performed in Dallas matches North Texas and Texas State. For those who ask me, one of many groups proved to be far superior this season and appears to be taking a significantly better curiosity in enjoying the sport. That might be the Bobcats, who beat three bowl sport groups this season in going 7-5. For those who recall, they put collectively a really centered effort in crushing Rice a yr in the past on this similar sport, 45-21. 

The Imply Inexperienced, in the meantime, completed 6-6 after going 1-5 SU and ATS of their ultimate six video games. The protection allowed 34.5 PPG, and the one participant able to holding them aggressive on this contest, QB Chandler Morris has opted for the switch portal. Trying on the latest historical past of this bowl collection, favorites are an ideal 11-0 SU within the First Responders Bowl collection, going 6-2-3 ATS – favoring Texas State College. They’re additionally an ideal 9-0 SU in addition to 7-2 ATS within the final 9 North Texas bowl video games. Not coincidentally, North Texas is simply 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS within the final 9 bowl video games. 

There are additionally a few good convention rep traits as properly, 1) Within the L43 bowl video games that includes a workforce from the AAC, FAVORITES are 28-15 ATS, and a pair of) In AAC bowl video games in opposition to the Group of 5 or Unbiased opponents, favorites are on a 16-3 ATS surge. Lastly, with Eric Morris of UNT a rookie by way of bowl teaching, first-time bowl sport head coaches have actually struggled during the last eight seasons, going 38-55 SU and 37-55-1 ATS (40.2%) vs. non-first-year coaches.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I anticipate Texas State (-13) to roll within the First Responders Bowl

Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Financial institution of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina

Friday, January 3, 7:30 p.m. ET

For as a lot as Minnesota will likely be lacking just a few key gamers on the defensive aspect of the ball for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl matchup with Virginia Tech, the losses pale compared to that of the Hokies, who will likely be lacking most of their finest gamers, together with QB Kyron Drones. We anticipate to see redshirt freshman Pop Watson on the place however the matchup is a troublesome one for him, as usually, Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has his workforce able to go come bowl time. In reality, Fleck is on a five-game bowl successful streak (closest win 6 factors), and the Minnesota program is on a seven-game bowl successful streak (6-1 ATS). 

Plus, all of us have to offer nice consideration to simply how badly the ACC has performed this yr in bowl video games. I’ve already misplaced on a number of events with a workforce from that league, and I’m not doing it once more, particularly when it looks like Tech may care much less about being in Charlotte. As it’s, ACC reps are simply 4-11 ATS within the final 15 video games of the Duke’s Mayo bowl collection, together with 5 straight present shedding streak, and Huge Ten groups are on a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS surge in bowl video games versus groups from the ACC.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I’m assured laying the factors with Minnesota (-8)

Bahamas Bowl – Thomas A. Robinson Nationwide Stadium – Nassau, Bahamas

Saturday, January 4, 11 a.m. ET

One workforce got here collectively to have a a lot completely different season than was anticipated. The opposite underachieved badly in what was anticipated to be a championship-type of season. It has since misplaced its quarterback and high offensive lineman to the switch portal. The latter workforce began out favored however has since flipped dramatically to underdog, a 5-point line transfer, in reality. Do not forget that in bowl video games between 1992-2024 that had closing strains greater than 4 factors off of their opening line, the workforce that the road moved in the direction of is 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%). Guess which approach I’m leaning, being an enormous “bowl motivation” sort of bettor? Right…Buffalo. 

The Bulls received eight video games this yr once they had been alleged to win 5.5, in response to the oddsmakers. The Flames received the identical quantity once they had been pegged to win 10.5. This got here in opposition to what was the nation’s best schedule. New head coach Pete Lembo had his Buffalo workforce galvanized rapidly, and so they received three video games in upset style. They get a Liberty workforce with out QB Kaidon Salter after he began each sport for his workforce during the last two years, placing up large numbers. An excessive amount of unfavourable materials to anticipate an enormous sport from head coach Jamey Chadwell’s workforce.

In fact, there are additionally some strong traits to lean on: 1) Buffalo has received its final three bowl video games SU and ATS 2) Taking part in within the small underdog function of lower than 7 factors has not been form to CUSA groups, with a report of 12-28 SU and 13-27 ATS since 2001. 3) favorites are on a tremendous 25-3 SU and 21-6-1 ATS run in bowl video games between CUSA and MAC opponents. And eventually, after Buffalo went 3-9 in 2023, groups that received 0-3 video games (25% or much less) the prior season and certified for a bowl sport the subsequent are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) during the last 9 bowl seasons when matched in opposition to a workforce not in that scenario.

Faculty Soccer Finest Guess: I’ve Buffalo -2.5 within the Bahamas Bowl

For extra faculty soccer playoff evaluation, go to the College Football Bowl Game hub completely on VSiN.