Elon Musk’s guarantees for Tesla in 2024, from robotaxis to Optimus robots

Elon Musk has had an eventful 2024, because of his sturdy persistence in right-wing politics and leveraging his X social media platform and appreciable affect to assist Donald Trump win the presidential election.

Leaving politics apart for a second, it is value specializing in one other of Musk’s pastimes: making guarantees for Tesla.

The Tesla CEO’s guarantees – and repeated missed deadlines – have turn out to be a standard thread in Tesla’s historical past. They usually’ve all the time had a shocking high quality that has captured the creativeness of buyers and helped drive up Tesla’s inventory worth, giving the corporate a $1.3 trillion valuation. He claimed in 2015 that Tesla automobiles could be autonomous driving in two yearsthat driverless road trips across the country could be activated by the tip of 2017 and that Tesla homeowners might earn cash by means of a large driverless ride-sharing community in 2020.

And though Tesla has cemented its place within the historical past books by constructing and promoting tens of millions of electrical automobiles, not one of the guarantees above (nor many others) have come to fruition.

However that hasn’t stopped Musk from making extra guarantees in 2024. Here is a breakdown of these guarantees and when he expects them to turn out to be actuality.

The $25,000 EV

In 2024 alone, Musk committed to revealing a $25,000 EV, then I scrapped it in April to prioritize a robotaxi prototype – a choice that led to massive layoffs as Tesla continued its “subsequent section of progress”.

Musk has flip flop on the query of whether or not the reasonably priced electrical automobile would ever come to market. However throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings convention name, Musk mentioned the thought of ​​constructing a $25,000 automobile with a steering wheel and pedals was “ineffective” and “dumb.” He mentioned the one automobile he would promote at that worth could be the Cybercab.

Throughout the name, an analyst requested if Tesla would make a inexpensive electrical automobile apart from the Cybercab, and Musk responded that all the firm’s automobiles could be autonomous sooner or later. He additionally mentioned that of the 7 million automobiles Tesla has constructed thus far, the “overwhelming majority” are “autonomy succesful” and that Tesla “is presently manufacturing on the order of 35,000 autonomous automobiles per week.” Musk is clearly utilizing a obscure definition of autonomy right here, as a result of Tesla nonetheless is not producing automobiles that can be utilized safely with no human behind the wheel.

(Flashback: Musk initially promised in 2016, in a since-deleted submit on Tesla’s web site, that “all Tesla automobiles produced now have absolutely autonomous driving {hardware}” and that solely a software program replace could be wanted to rework the common outdated Teslas in autonomous driving. automobiles. This did not occur and Tesla needed to improve their automobiles with older {hardware}.)

It is also value noting that in this earnings name, Musk mentioned he expects automobile progress to succeed in 20-30% in 2025 because of “decrease price automobiles” and ” creation of autonomy.

Begin manufacturing on the Cybercab by 2025 or 2026

Tesla unveiled 20 Cybercab prototypes at a flashy occasion in Hollywood in October, and Musk took the chance to share some plans for the automobiles, in addition to Tesla’s so-called Full Self-Driving (FSD) software program. FSD is Tesla’s superior driver help system that may carry out many automated driving duties, however nonetheless requires a human to concentrate to the wheel and take over if obligatory.

Musk advised his prospects they might sooner or later purchase a robotaxi – a two-door, two-seat automobile with no steering wheel or pedals – for lower than $30,000. He additionally mentioned the Cybercab’s common working price would lower over time to as little as $0.20 per mile. And he mentioned Tesla would start manufacturing of the purpose-built AVs in 2025 or 2026.

(Flashback: Musk mentioned in 2022 Tesla mass produce robotaxis by 2024. Earlier than that, in 2019, he mentioned Tesla would one million robot taxis on the roads by 2020. Musk has promised that Tesla would clear up the issue of absolutely autonomous driving “subsequent 12 months” since no less than 2016.)

A couple of weeks later, throughout Tesla’s third quarter earnings convention name, Musk said Tesla would attain “quantity manufacturing in 26” and that the corporate was “finally concentrating on no less than 2 million Cybercab models per 12 months.”

Present federal rules that require automobiles to be constructed to sure security requirements, corresponding to human hand controls, might be roadblocks for Tesla to mass produce its Cybercabs. The Nationwide Freeway Visitors Security Administration not too long ago new rules proposed It could velocity up exemptions for these automobiles, however require firms to share extra knowledge with the company, corresponding to accident stories. At this time, automakers are required to report accidents when ADAS or self-driving expertise is used.

Musk has already spoken out in opposition to the rule, and President-elect Donald Trump’s transition workforce has reportedly I’m considering scrapping it..

Robovan in improvement

Throughout Tesla’s robotaxi presentation, the corporate additionally confirmed buyers a Robovan prototype. On the time, Musk didn’t announce any concrete plans for the automobile, however in November he posted on that the Robovan is in improvement, together with “just a few different issues.”

(Flashback: In 2016, Musk mentioned that Tesla start building a minibus utilizing the Mannequin X chassis in two to a few years.)

“Unsupervised FSD” and autonomous carpooling in 2025

On the occasion, Musk additionally promised that Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y homeowners might use an “unsupervised” model of FSD in California and Texas in 2025.

It was, and nonetheless is, unclear what Musk meant by “unsupervised” FSD. At this time, Tesla’s FSD continues to be not absolutely autonomous, and to clear up any confusion, Tesla this 12 months started referring to the software program as “supervised FSD.” Eradicating supervision might imply that Tesla is contemplating eradicating the motive force, or it might imply that Tesla is contemplating providing a Stage 3 autonomous system that enables drivers to not intervene and switch a blind eye for a part of their journey.

Throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings convention name, Musk took the promise of unsupervised FSD a step additional. He mentioned he hopes to launch a service that can permit folks hail self-driving Teslas in California and Texas in 2025. He additionally claimed that Tesla has begun testing the service within the Bay Space with staff.

(Context: A number of ranges of permits are required to check and deploy autonomous automobiles in California. Tesla has had a allow to check AVs with a security driver within the entrance seat since 2015, however the Division of Motor Automobiles advised TechCrunch in October that Tesla said it last used this permit in 2019.)

It is unclear whether or not Tesla plans to launch this ride-sharing service with its robotaxis or with current Tesla Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y homeowners. Tesla’s first-quarter earnings presentation included a mock-up of a future ride-sharing app Tesla, and the corporate has for years mentioned the thought of ​​a ride-sharing community utilizing Teslas which have been up to date to drive absolutely autonomously. The concept is much like Uber’s: Solely Tesla homeowners would add their correctly geared up self-driving automobiles to the automaker’s ride-sharing app to earn more money when the automobiles aren’t in use. Tesla would take 25 to 30% of the income.

Lastly, throughout Tesla’s first quarter earnings convention name, Musk mentioned Tesla is in talks with a “main automaker” to acquire an FSD license, however has thus far not introduced any such deal. sort.

“Greater than a thousand Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025

Musk made some huge guarantees about Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robotic. At Tesla’s annual shareholder assembly, Musk promised that Tesla would transfer to “restricted manufacturing” of Optimus subsequent 12 months, with “greater than 1,000, or just a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025 He additionally said that he expects Optimus to be. on sale by 2026. In a post onthe billionaire government added that he expects extra Optimus robots to be obtainable to different firms in 2026.

He didn’t specify whether or not the robots would function fully autonomously or whether or not they could be controlled remotely by humansas they had been throughout Tesla’s robotaxi reveal occasion in October.

(Context: Whereas humanoid robots are bettering to the purpose the place they’re able to autonomously carry out particular duties, many consultants say widespread robotics continues to be years away because of an absence of coaching knowledge.)

Other than the manufacturing guarantees, Musk additionally predicted that Optimus might sooner or later enhance Tesla’s market capitalization to $25 trillion. It is roughly seven times the present market capitalizations of Apple and Nvidia. On the finish of December, Tesla’s market capitalization was roughly $1.42 trillion, a rise of almost 160% from the market capitalization of $550 billion earlier than Trump’s presidential election victory.

Did we miss one thing? Please be at liberty to contact rebecca.bellan@techcrunch.com.