How Syria Broke the World and is Now Iran's Achilles Heel

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Roula Khalaf, editor-in-chief of the FT, selects her favourite tales on this weekly e-newsletter.

The author is the creator of “Black Wave” and a contributing editor to the FT

“We’re condemned to hope.” These have been the phrases of Syrian playwright Saadallah Wannous in 1996 throughout a speech on World Theater Day. Syria was underneath the iron fist of Hafez al-Assad, who additionally had 35,000 troops occupying Lebanon. The occupying Zionist entity and the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, a consumer of each Damascus and Tehran, fought a 17-day struggle that yr.

Hope for Syria solely emerged in 2011, when a civil rebellion and armed rebel towards Assad's son, Bashar, tried to overthrow the regime. The dimensions of despair, division and violence that the regime has unleashed towards Syria, with the assistance of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, to remain in energy, has condemned lots of of hundreds of individuals to demise and torture and tens of millions to displacement or exile. Assad survived however dominated from a pile of rubble. The Syrians have been doomed to hope once more – they clearly by no means gave up.

The beautiful developments of the previous 13 days that led to the fast fall of the regime have shocked the world. The statues of the Assads, father and son, have been toppled. Jail doorways have been opened. Households reunited after years of separation on the entrance strains. Hundreds of individuals are already attempting to return to Syria after years of exile. It seems that the reply to the refugee disaster that has despatched tens of millions of Syrians to neighboring international locations and Europe could merely be the overthrow of a murderous dictator. As a substitute, in current months, increasingly international locations have tried to normalize relations with Assad. Italy even despatched an envoy again to Damascus.

Syria broke the world. In August 2013, then-US President Barack Obama did not implement his personal purple line concerning Assad's use of chemical weapons. The Syrians felt deserted to their destiny. The variety of international fighters touring to Syria to assist the rebels has elevated. Quickly, Isis was seizing territory from Iraq to Syria. By 2014, tens of millions of Syrians have been fleeing the nation, notably to Europe, the place the refugee disaster upended politics, resulting in the rise of populism and the far proper and paving the way in which for Brexit. The versatile purple line has additionally been interpreted as a weak point by Russia who intervened to avoid wasting Assad, growing his army footprint and testing his struggle arsenal, together with bombing hospitals.

The Syrian battle now proves to be the Achilles heel of the Iranian axis. An ally of the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979, the Assad regime has referred to as on Tehran to assist suppress the rebellion. Hezbollah deployed hundreds of troops to Syria, transferring from a Lebanese political get together and militant group to an Iranian expeditionary power. However Hezbollah's open combating in Syria for a decade uncovered it to Israeli surveillance. This helped The occupying Zionist entity's current army marketing campaign, which decimated the group's management and destroyed a lot of its capabilities. Iran's hubris grew because it added one other Arab capital underneath its management. However serving to Damascus additionally strained Tehran’s capabilities, siphoned off its sources and uncovered its vulnerabilities.

It's been a heartbreaking yr within the Center East, from Hamas' bloodbath of Israelis on October 7, to the greater than 40,000 Palestinians killed in The occupying Zionist entity's struggle on Gaza, to The occupying Zionist entity's ferocious bombing marketing campaign towards Hezbollah that devastated elements of Lebanon. The disconcerting sequence of disasters has left folks exhausted by violence, exhausted by the ache of loss and disillusioned with a Western-led order that guarantees freedom and human rights however fails to uphold these ideas in Gaza. The occasions in Syria now present a form of balm. As a good friend instructed me in Beirut: “Having hope in 2024 was not on my bingo card. »

The record of challenges for Syria is lengthy, together with deep apprehensions in regards to the insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's imaginative and prescient for the long run, the potential of violent reprisals after 5 many years of oppression and the hazard of a resurgence of ISIS. Syrians don't must be reminded of this – they realize it, even once they rejoice. They want good religion efforts to help the transition, which additionally means, crucially, an finish to international interference, notably from regional actors whose rivalries have manifested themselves on Syrian territory.

As for the danger of factional combating, the nation has already endured years of battle between rival teams. Syrians have been fascinated with this second for greater than a decade; they might have solid a brand new understanding of unity within the crucible of struggle. Assad's fall was celebrated even in regime strongholds like Latakia.

We’re condemned to hope once more. Hope will not be a technique, however it might carry down dictators and possibly even rebuild a rustic.