HTS chief not the one participant in Syria's quickly altering future

“They arrived right here anxious in regards to the Islamists,” mentioned one supply, describing the temper of Arab international ministers who traveled to Doha on Saturday night for pressing negotiations aimed toward avoiding a collapse into chaos and a shower of blood in Damascus.

Inside hours, the highly effective Islamist group behind the rebels' rise to energy reported that they had reached the center of the Syrian capital.

The chief of Hayat Tahrir-al Shams, Abu Mohammad al-Jowlani, triumphantly introduced “the seize of Damascus.” He now makes use of his actual identify, Ahmed al-Sharaa, slightly than his nom de guerre, an indication of his sudden rise to a way more essential nationwide function.

It’s sure that he’ll play a decisive function in defining the brand new Syrian order after this sudden and beautiful finish to half a century of repressive Assad household rule. However the head of a corporation banned by the UN in addition to Western governments will not be the one central participant on the quickly evolving Syrian scene.

“Historical past will not be but written,” warns Marie Forestier, senior adviser on Syria on the European Institute for Peace. She and different knowledgeable observers attending the annual Doha Discussion board level out that it was one other insurgent group, just lately named the Southern Operations Room, working with town's residents, that broke into the capital. The drive's ranks are dominated by fighters from the previous Free Syrian Military (FSA), which labored intently with Western powers initially of the 2011 Syrian rebellion,

“The sport begins now,” is how Ms. Forestier describes the beginning of this momentous new chapter marked by an explosion of celebrations within the streets, but in addition vital questions on what comes subsequent.

Just like the Islamist Hayat Tahrir-al Shams (HTS) superior with astonishing pace, going through little resistance, it triggered a rush of insurgent forces into different components of Syria in addition to a surge of native armed teams desperate to play a task in their very own areas.

“The battle in opposition to the Assad regime was the glue that made it doable to take care of the cohesion of this de facto coalition,” explains Thomas Juneau, Center East skilled on the Graduate Faculty of Public and Worldwide Affairs of the College of Ottawa, additionally in Doha.

“Now that Assad has fled, sustaining unity among the many teams that toppled him shall be a problem,” he says.

These teams embody an alliance of Turkish militias referred to as the Syrian Nationwide Military that, like HTS, dominated a part of northwest Syria. Within the northeast, teams of the Syrian Protection Forces (SDF), primarily Kurds, have additionally gained floor and shall be decided to take care of their good points.

However the bold chief of HTS attracted consideration. His rhetoric and document at the moment are intently scrutinized by Syrians, in addition to in neighboring capitals and effectively past. The commander whose militia first emerged as affiliated with Al Qaeda broke ranks with the jihadist group in 2016 and has been making an attempt to restore his picture ever since. For years he despatched conciliatory messages overseas; he now reassures the various Syrian minority communities: they don’t have anything to concern.

“There’s a cautious reception to his messages,” says Ms. Forestier. “However we can’t neglect the final eight years of his authoritarian rule and his previous.” The rule of the HTS, each a political and paramilitary group, within the conservative province of Idlib was marked by the institution of an operational administration known as the Salvation Authorities, which included restricted freedom of faith, but in addition was marked by repressive measures.

In Aleppo, Syria's second metropolis, the first urban area seized by HTS in its meteoric advanceits fighters are attempting to show that they’re match to control.

The group additionally despatched reassuring messages to international locations like Iraq, saying the battle wouldn’t prolong past their borders. Different neighbors, together with Jordan, concern that close by Islamist successes may provoke disaffected militant teams inside their borders. Turkey, sure to play a key function, has its personal issues. They contemplate the SDF to be a terrorist group linked to the Kurdish PKK group, banned in Turkey, and won’t hesitate to intervene militarily and politically, as they’ve executed for years, if their very own pursuits are threatened.

Russian Overseas Minister Sergei Lavrov instructed the Doha Discussion board on Saturday that it was “inadmissible” {that a} group he known as terrorists, a transparent reference to HTS, may take management of Syria.

Within the night, the UN particular envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, instructed me there was a “new understanding of a brand new actuality”.

The area's international ministers, together with President Assad's former staunch allies Iran and Russia, wrong-footed by this dramatic flip of occasions, proceed to name for efforts to forge a political course of inclusive. That is echoed by Mr. Pedersen.

“This darkish chapter has left deep scars, however right this moment we await with cautious hope the opening of a brand new chapter, certainly one of peace, reconciliation, dignity and inclusion for all Syrians,” he mentioned after his conferences right here in Doha, the place rooms filled with high diplomats, teachers and officers from around the globe are full of the newest information from Syria.

Many observers seem reluctant to attract fast conclusions about what sort of rule will emerge in a rustic recognized for the range of its Christian and Muslim sects.

“I don’t wish to go down that path of pondering but,” mentioned one Western diplomat when requested about his issues a few harsh order dominated by Islamists. “We’re simply getting began with HTS, who carried out a cold coup.”

Juneau agrees. “For now, it’s good to easily recognize the actually historic collapse of one of the vital brutal regimes of current a long time,” he mentioned.