Morgan Stanley (MS) Inventory Forecast

Abstract

As we come to the top of one other robust 12 months for the inventory market, quite a lot of technical circumstances should not as robust as initially of 2024. On the similar time, different sentiment indicators mirror optimism excessive – similar to they had been a 12 months in the past. The market bottomed in October 2023 and noticed a pleasant transfer in 2024 till July, the place it was hit for a number of months. After bottoming out in August, shares have seen a clearer growth – ​​albeit with some choppiness of late. At first of 2024, 79% of S&P 500 shares (SPX) had been above their 200-day common; as we speak, this determine is 58% and has been falling for the reason that starting of December (then it was 77%). For the S&P 100, an especially excessive 84% of the index was over its 200 days initially of the 12 months; At present, this determine has fallen to a barely optimistic 63% (in comparison with 79% on the finish of November). For essentially the most half, these vital deteriorations have taken place since mid-October. For the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), 87% of the index’s holdings had been above their 200-day restrict initially of the 12 months; now the studying is 58%. There have been two durations of degradation, and each coincided with a restoration within the index. The bullish Pe