NBA High Picks Based mostly on Betting Splits, Energy Rankings and Developments for Monday, December 23

Immediately’s NBA Betting Developments:

The next NBA betting tendencies are a set of analytical knowledge, betting methods and energy scores featured on VSiN and certified for the NBA video games of Monday, December 23, 2024. This report is supposed to emulate the method that Steve Makinen and different members of the VSiN Analytics crew endure when handicapping every day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the highest NBA betting tendencies and methods for at this time’s video games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* POR and DAL sequence is on an prolonged 17-3 Over the whole run within the final 20
Development Match: PLAY OVER the whole in POR-DAL (o/u at 228)

* Groups that performed in an time beyond regulation recreation the prior day are on a 54-86 SU and 57-78-5 ATS (42.2%) slide, together with 28-47-3 ATS within the final 78 video games and 18-34 ATS when a choose ’em or favourite.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 vs. PHX)

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Groups having received their final 4 video games or extra have been a dangerous guess when taking part in as double-digit dwelling favorites, going 99-17 SU however 51-63-3 ATS (44.7%) for the reason that begin of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-14 vs. UTA)

* Underneath the whole was 11-1 (91.7%) final season when the house crew was taking part in its 4th Residence in 10+ Days and the street crew was taking part in on One Day Relaxation.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ORL (o/u at 215)

* INDIANA is 15-32 SU and 15-31-1 ATS in its final 47 third Straight Highway video games
Development Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 at GSW)

Methods Utilizing NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Information

Probably the most touted options on the VSiN.com web site, and a characteristic that we imagine to be a improbable useful resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we’ve constructed using the info that DraftKings so graciously supplies to us, detailing the breakdowns of the cash and ticket splits for level spreads, cash strains, and totals. In an article printed on the VSiN.com web site on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 completely different systematic methods for efficiently utilizing the DK Betting Splits Information that developed within the final two seasons. Listed below are the methods and qualifying performs for at this time’s video games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and can change, so proceed to trace and qualify the methods up till tip-off for greatest utilization.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or extra of the deal with has been on the street facet of an ATS wager, this “tremendous” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the past season-and-a-half. This has been a really constant system since I first discovered it, and for its simplicity, pretty profitable. Bear in mind, deal with is the whole amount of cash on a recreation. When a great portion of the general cash is on a street crew within the NBA, it wins as a rule.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, WASHINGTON, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In one other considerably uncommon state of affairs, when there was a majority deal with backing the crew with fewer wins on the season within the NBA over the past 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS document (57.1%). This lot of 273 video games was solely 13.1% of the whole pattern dimension.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: In regards to the variety of bets. When 70% or extra of the variety of bets has been on a house facet of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “tremendous” majority group has gone simply 60-86 ATS (41.1%), properly under the general efficiency of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Convention video games (East versus West) of the final season and a half, DK tremendous majority deal with teams of 62% or higher have been profitable, as they’re 242-201 ATS (54.6%). For those who take into account that the general majority numbers confirmed a 51.8% success price, they have been 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The quantity 63% or increased has been a key super-majority quantity in non-divisional convention video games over the past season-and-a-half, with deal with teams of that dimension boasting a 280-233 ATS document, good for 54.6%. That is one other 2.8% enchancment on the general majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MIAMI, MEMPHIS, DALLAS, PHOENIX

The general numbers proven earlier detailed that majority bettors have received considerably on cash line wagering this season. Listed below are some extra detailed specifics, with some dropping angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the bulk cash line deal with was on a crew in a divisional matchup final season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the deal with for +30 items, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable enchancment over all different matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK ML, MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the bulk deal with was on street underdogs for a cash line wager over the past 1-1/2 season, this majority group has achieved properly, going 86-138 however for +19.67 items and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes endurance to wager one thing that wins solely 38% of the time, however the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Cash line majorities on double-digit street favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority deal with teams are 97-22 SU however for -46.6 items, an ROI of -39.2%. whereas majority variety of bets teams have gone 101-22 SU however for -43.6 items, an ROI of -35.4%. We are going to suggest fading these performs till one thing modifications, as backing massive street chalk generally is a very dangerous technique within the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML

These final three methods contain totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Top-of-the-line, easiest, and most frequent angles I’ve been capable of uncover is when a majority of deal with bettors have been backing the Underneath in an NBA recreation. I advised you earlier that the majority NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority quantity have favored the Underneath possibility over the past year-and-a-half, the outcomes have been robust, with Underneath the whole on these video games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-MIA, MIN-ATL, MIL-CHI, LAC-MEM, IND-GSW, DET-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There was some first rate success for the variety of bets majorities after they don’t get too closely invested. In truth, majorities on both facet of the whole (Over or Underneath) of 57% or much less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 items and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-NYK
UNDER – UTA-CLE, MIL-CHI, LAC-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The common NBA recreation whole since January of ’23 has been a contact below 228. In NBA video games with “low” totals, or these lower than 220, majority deal with bettors have gone a formidable 226-198 (53.3%), whereas majority variety of bets teams are a bit higher at 234-194 (54.7%). Each teams have confirmed worthwhile no matter which facet of the whole they’ve chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAS-PHI, BOS-ORL
UNDER – BKN-MIA

Schedule Conditions Essential for NBA Handicapping

The next is an expanded model of the article printed on this yr’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling conditions during which groups have proven definitive patterns over the previous couple of seasons. Usually, there are causes that groups carry out at various ranges primarily based on their schedules, whether or not that be from the quantity of relaxation they’ve gotten earlier than a recreation, how fatigued they’re from a string of video games, or how they take care of accidents/workloads primarily based upon the schedule pressures.

We will probably be monitoring 50 high scheduling conditions all season lengthy!

* Hosts taking part in in an A2H b2b recreation situation are 17-30 SU and 16-30-1 ATS (34.8%) for the reason that begin of final season internet hosting groups taking part in on One Day Relaxation.
Fade DENVER vs. Phoenix
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 vs. PHX)

* Underneath the whole was 107-78-1 (57.8%) over the past three seasons when the street crew was on One Day Relaxation and the host was taking part in a third Residence in 4 Days recreation.
Underneath the whole in CLEVELAND-UTAH
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-CLE (o/u at 232.5)

* Over the whole was 50-40 (55.6%) over the past two seasons when the house crew was on One Day Relaxation and the street crew was taking part in a H2A b2b recreation.
Over the whole in NEW YORK-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-NYK (o/u at 226)

* Over the whole is 30-17 (63.8%) for the reason that begin of final season when the house crew was on A2H b2b and the street crew was taking part in a One Day Relaxation recreation.
Over the whole in DENVER-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-DEN (o/u at 230.5)

* Underneath the whole was 11-1 (91.7%) final season when the house crew was taking part in its 4th Residence in 10+ Days and the street crew was taking part in on One Day Relaxation.
Underneath the whole in ORLANDO-BOSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ORL (o/u at 215)

* Underneath the whole is on a 54-18 (75%) within the final 72 when one of many groups in a matchup was on a 4th Recreation in 10+ Days schedule situation and the opponent was taking part in a One Day Relaxation recreation.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all video games at this time besides HOU-CHA

* Underneath the whole was 26-10 (72.2%) for the reason that begin of final season when the house crew was taking part in a third Straight Residence recreation versus a street crew on 4th in 10+ Days situation.
Underneath the whole in CLEVELAND-UTAH
Underneath the whole in ORLANDO-BOSTON
Underneath the whole in DALLAS-PORTLAND
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-CLE, BOS-ORL, POR-DAL

High Staff-Particular Scheduling State of affairs NBA Betting Developments

The next are 40 high team-specific NBA betting tendencies which have developed over the previous couple of seasons when contemplating scheduling conditions. Just like the league-wide methods launched earlier, naturally, there are causes that sure groups carry out at various ranges primarily based upon their schedules, whether or not that be from the quantity of relaxation they’ve gotten earlier than a recreation, how fatigued they’re from a string of video games, or how they take care of accidents/workloads primarily based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 15-32 SU and 15-31-1 ATS in its final 47 third Straight Highway video games
Fade INDIANA at Golden State
Development Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 at GSW)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 35-37 SU and 24-47-1 ATS skid within the final 72 when taking part in on commonplace One Day Relaxation
Fade MILWAUKEE at Chicago
Development Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHI)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-17 SU and 29-14-1 ATS in its final 44 video games taking part in on 2 Days Relaxation
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Washington
Development Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-18 vs WSH)

* UTAH is 13-18 SU however 22-9 ATS in its final 31 third Straight Highway video games
UTAH at Cleveland
Development Match (PLAY): UTAH (+14 at CLE)

* UTAH is on a 42-21 Over the whole run when taking part in on the street with One Day Relaxation
Over the whole in UTAH-CLEVELAND
Development Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-CLE (o/u at 232.5)

NBA Staff Power Techniques

The next handicapping data particulars 5 NBA betting tendencies for groups primarily based on numerous crew energy indicators or line situations. Until famous, these are from the final 4 NBA seasons.

NBA Staff Power Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference video games have gone 190-36 SU however simply 105-118-3 ATS (47.1%) over the past 4 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-14 vs. UTA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-18 vs. WSH)

NBA Staff Power Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA video games have produced some definitive outcomes on totals over the past 4 seasons, relying on what sort of matchup it was. In divisional video games that includes double-digit strains, Underneath the whole has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference video games, Over the whole was 168-143 (54%). And eventually, in non-divisional convention video games, Over the whole was 237-182 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-CLE, BOS-ORL, BKN-MIA, POR-DAL, WSH-OKC
UNDER – TOR-NYK

NBA Excessive Stats Subsequent Recreation Techniques

These NBA betting tendencies seek for excessive statistical performances in NBA video games and element the outcomes of the follow-up recreation for the groups. These methods are from the final 4 seasons until famous.

Fade groups off of time beyond regulation video games
Groups that performed in an time beyond regulation recreation the prior day are on a 54-86 SU and 57-78-5 ATS (42.2%) slide, together with 28-47-3 ATS within the final 78 video games and 18-34 ATS when a choose ’em or favourite.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 vs. PHX)

Shut wins haven’t supplied for momentum going ahead
NBA groups that received as favorites by a detailed margin (1-3 factors) have gone 250-133 SU however simply 163-208-12 ATS (43.9%) within the subsequent contest when favored once more.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 vs. PHX)

Uncommon capturing efficiency methods
NBA groups off a recreation during which they have been granted 35 or extra free throw makes an attempt trended Underneath the whole the subsequent recreation, 277-232 (54.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-MIA (o/u at 213)

NBA groups which have made 50% or extra of their 3PT discipline objective makes an attempt in a contest have responded the subsequent day trip by going simply 251-267 SU and 229-283-6 ATS (44.7%) within the subsequent recreation over the past 4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-14 vs. UTA)

Equally, NBA groups which have made 20 or extra 3PT discipline objectives in a recreation have struggled the subsequent day trip, going simply 276-257 SU and 238-282-11 ATS (45.8%) the subsequent recreation over the past 4 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-14 vs. UTA), MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHI)

NBA street groups coming off a recreation during which they made 20+ 3-point photographs have gone simply 141-163 SU and 137-160-7 ATS (46.1%) in that subsequent contest over the past six seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHI)

Groups not making many free throws bounce again properly
NBA groups that coming off a recreation during which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced again properly within the subsequent outing, and are on a 168-141 SU and 171-129-9 ATS (57%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHI), PORTLAND (+10.5 at DAL), INDIANA (+6 at GSW)

Uncommon defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA groups which have allowed 20 or extra 3PT discipline objectives in a recreation have rebounded properly when favored the subsequent day trip, going 169-63 SU and 125-104-3 ATS (54.6%) over the past 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. SAS)

NBA Streak Techniques

The next handicapping data particulars 9 NBA betting tendencies for groups on successful or dropping streaks of no less than 4 video games within the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Groups having received their final 4 video games or extra have been a dangerous guess when taking part in as double-digit dwelling favorites, going 99-17 SU BUT 51-63-3 ATS (44.7%) for the reason that begin of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-14 vs UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Groups reaching successful OR dropping streaks of 7-games or extra turn into play towards groups basically, going 206-256-2 ATS (44.6%) within the subsequent outing since 2020, and specifically, groups on dropping streaks of 7-games or extra have been horrible in street video games, going 27-115 SU and 60-78-4 ATS (43.5%).
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+14 at NYK)

Immediately’s NBA Power Rankings

The next NBA betting tendencies are taken from at this time’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS web page below the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by crew, present line, and distinction between score and present line (in parenthesis).

Immediately’s High 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS in keeping with the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +6 (+0.9)
2(tie). CHICAGO +1.5 (+0.7)
ORLANDO +10.5 (+0.7)

Immediately’s High 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES in keeping with the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -6 (+1.7)
2. DENVER -4.5 (+1.5)
3. NEW YORK -14 (+1.4)

Immediately’s High 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS in keeping with the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. UTAH +14 (+4.4)
2. SAN ANTONIO +6 (+4.0)
3. DETROIT +5.5 (+1.3)

Immediately’s High 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES in keeping with the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -18 (+6.6)
2. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE -6 (+1.2)

Immediately’s High 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER in keeping with the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. PHX-DEN OVER 230.5 (+4.3)
2. POR-DAL OVER 229.5 (+1.9)
3. UTA-CLE OVER 232.5 (+1.2)

Immediately’s High 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER in keeping with the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. HOU-CHA UNDER 220 (-3.1)
2. MIN-ATL UNDER 223.5 (-2.4)
3. WSH-OKC UNDER 226 (-1.9)

Immediately’s High 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS in keeping with the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+1.9)
2. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+1.2)
3. UTAH +14 (+0.8)

Immediately’s High 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES in keeping with the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -5.5 (+3.2)
2. MEMPHIS -6 (+2.8)
3. NEW YORK -14 (+2.6)

Immediately’s High 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER in keeping with the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. PHX-DEN OVER 230.5 (+5.3)
2. IND-GSW OVER 229.5 (+3.2)
3. MIL-CHI OVER 231 (+2.7)

Immediately’s High 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER in keeping with the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Rankings Matches:
1. POR-DAL UNDER 229.5 (-3.3)
2. HOU-CHA UNDER 220 (-2.8)
3. BOS-ORL UNDER 215 (-1.9)

High Every day Head-to-Head Collection NBA Betting Developments

Listed below are the highest head-to-head sequence NBA betting tendencies in play for all of at this time’s video games:

(531) UTAH at (532) CLEVELAND
* Over the whole is 5-1 within the final six video games when Utah visits Cleveland
Development Match: PLAY OVER the whole

(533) SAN ANTONIO at (534) PHILADELPHIA
* Highway groups have coated 5 straight ATS within the SAS-PHI sequence
Development Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(537) BOSTON at (538) ORLANDO
* Underneath the whole is 8-2 ATS within the final 10 conferences between BOS and ORL in Orlando
Development Match: PLAY UNDER the whole

(541) MINNESOTA at (542) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS within the final 9 video games versus Minnesota
Development Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(549) WASHINGTON at (550) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Underdogs are 10-3 ATS within the final 13 conferences between WSH and OKC
Development Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

* Over the whole is 5-0 in all 5 conferences since 2022
Development Match: PLAY OVER the whole

(551) PORTLAND at (552) DALLAS
* POR and DAL sequence is on prolonged 17-3 Over the whole run within the final 20
Development Match: PLAY OVER the whole

* Favorites have coated eight straight ATS within the POR-DAL matchups
Development Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(555) INDIANA at (556) GOLDEN STATE
* INDIANA has coated 5 straight ATS in visits to Golden State
* Underdogs are 8-0 within the final eight of the IND-GSW sequence
Developments Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS