NBA Prime Picks Based mostly on Betting Splits, Energy Scores and Traits for Thursday, December 19

At the moment’s NBA Betting Traits:

The next NBA betting tendencies are a group of analytical knowledge, betting methods and energy scores featured on VSiN and certified for the NBA video games of Thursday, December 19, 2024. This report is supposed to emulate the method that Steve Makinen and different members of the VSiN Analytics group bear when handicapping every day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the highest NBA betting tendencies and methods for right this moment’s video games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

NBA highway favorites profitable 36% of their video games or much less are on a powerful surge of 71-25 SU and 62-33-1 ATS (65.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4 at WSH)

OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 ATS within the final 13 of the nonconference sequence with Orlando
Pattern Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at ORL)

House groups taking part in a third in 8+ Days recreation are 34-15 SU and 31-15-3 ATS (67.4%) internet hosting groups taking part in a 2 Days Relaxation recreation over the past 4 seasons.
Pattern Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, WASHINGTON, TORONTO, DALLAS, PORTLAND 

NBA highway groups coming off a recreation wherein they made 20+ 3-point pictures have gone simply 138-162 SU and 134-159-7 ATS (45.7%) in that subsequent contest over the past six seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at MEM)

Methods Utilizing NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Knowledge

Some of the touted options on the VSiN.com web site, and a characteristic that we consider to be a incredible useful resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have now constructed using the information that DraftKings so graciously offers to us detailing the breakdowns of the cash and ticket splits for level spreads, cash traces, and totals. 

In an article revealed on the VSiN.com web site on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 totally different systematic methods for efficiently utilizing the DK Betting Splits Knowledge that developed within the final two seasons. Listed below are the methods and qualifying performs for right this moment’s video games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and can change, so proceed to trace and qualify the methods up till tip-off for greatest utilization. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or extra of the deal with was on the aspect of a house group taking part in as a 4-point favourite or much less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “tremendous” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). It is a pretty worthwhile system that the general public appears to get proper constantly.  When you see almost 2/3 of the deal with backing a number in an anticipated aggressive NBA recreation this season, it’s a stable guess to comply with it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, MEMPHIS, DALLAS, MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or extra of the deal with has been on the highway aspect of an ATS wager, this “tremendous” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the past season-and-a-half. This has been a really constant system since I first discovered it, and for its simplicity, pretty profitable. Bear in mind, deal with is the full sum of money on a recreation. When a superb portion of the general cash is on a highway group within the NBA, it wins as a rule.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, BROOKLYN, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It’s a considerably uncommon state of affairs, however when there was a majority deal with backing a house underdog within the NBA over the past 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS file (61.9%). I informed you earlier that the majority bettors are inclined to guess favorites. This lot of 63 video games was solely 3.0% of the full pattern measurement.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In one other considerably uncommon state of affairs, when there was a majority deal with backing the group with fewer wins on the season within the NBA over the past 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS file (57.1%). This lot of 273 video games was solely 13.1% of the full pattern measurement.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, SAN ANTONIO, MINNESOTA, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: In regards to the variety of bets. When 70% or extra of the variety of bets has been on a house aspect of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “tremendous” majority group has gone simply 60-86 ATS (41.1%), nicely beneath the general efficiency of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference video games (East versus West) of the final season and a half, DK tremendous majority deal with teams of 62% or better have been profitable, as they’re 242-201 ATS (54.6%). When you contemplate that the general majority numbers confirmed a 51.8% success price, they had been 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, DETROIT, PHOENIX, MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The quantity 63% or larger has been a key super-majority quantity in non-divisional convention video games over the past season-and-a-half, with deal with teams of that measurement boasting a 280-233 ATS file, good for 54.6%. That is one other 2.8% enchancment on the general majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MEMPHIS, DALLAS 

The general numbers proven earlier detailed that majority bettors have received considerably on cash line wagering this season. Listed below are some extra detailed specifics, with some shedding angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the bulk cash line deal with was on a group in a divisional matchup final season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the deal with for +30 models, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable enchancment over all different matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, TORONTO ML, HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the bulk deal with was on highway underdogs for a cash line wager over the past 1-1/2 season, this majority group has achieved nicely, going 86-138 however for +19.67 models and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes endurance to wager one thing that wins solely 38% of the time, however the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA ML 

These final 4 methods contain totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Probably the greatest, easiest, and most frequent angles I’ve uncovered is when a majority of deal with bettors had been backing the Below in an NBA recreation. I informed you earlier that the majority NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority quantity have favored the Below choice over the past year-and-a-half, the outcomes have been sturdy, with Below the full on these video games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-ORL, CHI-BOS, NOP-HOU, ATL-SAS, LAC-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There was some first rate success for the variety of bets majorities after they don’t get too closely invested. In truth, majorities on both aspect of the full (Over or Below) of 57% or much less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 models and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-MEM
UNDER – ATL-SAS, DEN-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The typical NBA recreation complete since January of 2023 has been a contact beneath 228. In NBA video games with “low” totals, or these lower than 220, majority deal with bettors have gone a powerful 226-198 (53.3%), whereas the bulk variety of bets teams are a bit higher at 234-194 (54.7%). Each teams have confirmed worthwhile no matter which aspect of the full they’ve chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-TOR, NYK-MIN
UNDER – OKC-ORL, NOP-HOU 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Below bettors have been profitable when sticking to their weapons regardless of DraftKings elevating the full off of its opening quantity. These Below majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals lure.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SAS

Schedule Conditions Essential for NBA Handicapping

The next NBA betting tendencies are an expanded model of the article revealed on this yr’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling conditions wherein groups have proven definitive patterns over the previous couple of seasons. Sometimes, there are causes that groups carry out at various ranges based mostly on their schedules, whether or not that be from the quantity of relaxation they’ve gotten earlier than a recreation, how fatigued they’re from a string of video games, or how they take care of accidents/workloads based mostly upon the schedule pressures. 

We can be monitoring 50 prime scheduling conditions all season lengthy! 

* Groups on 3+ Days Relaxation are 185-125 SU and 179-123 ATS (59.3%) versus groups taking part in on One Day Relaxation over the past 4 seasons.
Pattern Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 vs. OKC) 

* Groups taking part in a third in 8+ Days recreation are 75-47 SU and 73-46-3 ATS (61.3%) versus groups taking part in a 2 Days Relaxation recreation over the past 4 seasons.
Pattern Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, DALLAS, PORTLAND, LA LAKERS

* House groups taking part in a third in 8+ Days recreation are 78-51 SU and 71-55-3 ATS (56.3%) internet hosting highway groups on One Day Relaxation over the past 4 seasons.
Pattern Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 vs. OKC) 

* House groups taking part in on 3+ Days Relaxation are 64-30 SU and 58-34-2 ATS (63%) internet hosting highway groups on One Day Relaxation over the past three seasons.
Pattern Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 vs. OKC) 

* House groups taking part in a third in 8+ Days recreation are 34-15 SU and 31-15-3 ATS (67.4%) internet hosting groups taking part in a 2 Days Relaxation recreation over the past 4 seasons.
Pattern Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, WASHINGTON, TORONTO, DALLAS, PORTLAND 

* Over the full was 112-76 (59.6%) over the past three seasons when one group was on One Day Relaxation and the opponent was taking part in on 3+ Days Relaxation.
Pattern Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-ORL (o/u at 211) 

* Below the full was 79-51 (60.8%) over the past 4 seasons when one group was on 2 Days Relaxation and the opponent was taking part in a third in 8+ Days recreation.
Pattern Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-DET, CHA-WSH, BKN-TOR, LAC-DAL, DEN-POR, LAL-SAC 

* Over the full was 55-39 (58.5%) over the past three seasons when the house group was on 3+ Days Relaxation and the highway group was taking part in a One Day Relaxation recreation.
Pattern Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-ORL (o/u at 211) 

* Below the full was 73-41 (64%) for the reason that begin of final season when one of many groups in a matchup was on a 4th Sport in 10+ Days schedule state of affairs and the opponent was taking part in a third in 8+ Days recreation—in different phrases, two fairly rested groups.
Pattern Matches: PLAY UNDER in all 13 video games right this moment 

* Below the full was on a 45-14 (76.3%) run to shut final season when one of many groups in a matchup was on a 4th Sport in 10+ Days schedule state of affairs and the opponent was taking part in a One Day Relaxation recreation.
Pattern Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-ORL (o/u at 211) 

* Below the full was 40-24 (62.5%) for the reason that begin of final season when each groups in an NBA matchup had been in the identical third in 8+ Days recreation state of affairs…two rested groups.
Pattern Matches: PLAY UNDER in all 13 video games right this moment 

* WASHINGTON is on 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS skid when taking part in a third in 8+ Days recreation
Pattern Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+4 vs. CHA) 

NBA Group Power Techniques

The next handicapping data particulars 5 NBA betting tendencies for groups based mostly on varied group energy indicators or line situations. Except famous, these are from the final 4 NBA seasons.

NBA Group Power Betting System #2:
In video games between two groups with 40% or much less profitable percentages, and contours of 4.5 or much less both approach, highway groups are on a 100-64 SU and 99-62-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (-4 at WSH), BROOKLYN (+4 at TOR) 

NBA Group Power Betting System #3:
NBA highway favorites profitable 36% of their video games or much less are on a powerful surge of 71-25 SU and 62-33-1 ATS (65.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4 at WSH) 

NBA Group Power Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA video games have produced some definitive outcomes on totals over the past 4 seasons, relying on what kind of matchup it was. In divisional video games that includes double-digit traces, Below the full has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference video games, Over the full was 168-143 (54%). And eventually, in non-divisional convention video games, Over the full was 237-179 (57%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-BOS (o/u at 241)

NBA Excessive Stats Subsequent Sport Techniques

These NBA betting tendencies seek for excessive statistical performances in NBA video games and element the outcomes of the follow-up recreation for the groups. These methods are from the final 4 seasons until famous. 

135 factors in a win is a group rating to observe for
Groups that received their final recreation whereas scoring 135 or extra factors are on a 210-123 SU, however 149-178-6 ATS (45.6%) skid within the follow-up contest when favored. The file versus divisional foes amongst these video games is 30-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-4 vs LAC)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals shortly
NBA groups that come off a recreation wherein they scored 90 factors or fewer have responded nicely when favored within the subsequent outing, going 137-52 SU and 114-73-2 ATS (61%) of their final 189 tries.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 at ORL)

Uncommon capturing efficiency methods
NBA groups off a recreation wherein they had been granted 35 or extra free throw makes an attempt trended Below the full the subsequent recreation, 276-232 (54.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-SAC (o/u at 228) 

NBA groups which have made 50% or extra of their 3PT subject objective makes an attempt in a contest have responded the subsequent day trip by going simply 249-265 SU and 227-281-6 ATS (44.7%) within the subsequent recreation over the past 4 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at MEM), DALLAS (-4 vs LAC)

Equally, NBA groups which have made 20 or extra 3PT subject targets in a recreation have struggled the subsequent day trip, going simply 272-255 SU and 234-280-11 ATS (45.5%) the subsequent recreation over the past 4 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at MEM), DALLAS (-4 vs LAC)

NBA highway groups coming off a recreation wherein they made 20+ 3-point pictures have gone simply 138-162 SU and 134-159-7 ATS (45.7%) in that subsequent contest over the past six seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at MEM)

Groups not making many free throws bounce again nicely
NBA groups coming off a recreation wherein they made six free throws or fewer have bounced again nicely within the subsequent outing, and are on a 167-141 SU and 170-129-9 ATS (56.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+4 vs CHA)

NBA Streak Techniques

The next handicapping data particulars 9 NBA betting tendencies for groups on profitable or shedding streaks of at the very least 4 video games within the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

At the moment’s NBA Power Scores

The next NBA betting tendencies are taken from right this moment’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS web page beneath the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by group, present line, and distinction between score and present line (in parenthesis).

At the moment’s Prime 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS in line with the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Scores Matches:
1. NEW YORK +2.5 (+1.4)
2. ATLANTA +1.5 (+0.7)
3. UTAH +4.5 (+0.6)

At the moment’s Prime 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES in line with the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Scores Matches:
1. HOUSTON -9 (+1.6)
2. CHARLOTTE -4 (+0.9)
3. BOSTON -14 (+0.6)

At the moment’s Prime 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS in line with the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Scores Matches:
1. NEW YORK +2.5 (+1.6)
2. ORLANDO +6.5 (+1.4)
3. LA LAKERS +4.5 (+1.2) 

At the moment’s Prime 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES in line with the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Scores Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -1.5 (+3.3)
2. BOSTON -14 (+1.3)
3. HOUSTON -9 (+0.4) 

At the moment’s Prime 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER in line with the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Scores Matches:
1. NYK-MIN OVER 214.5 (+4.3)
2. BKN-TOR OVER 219 (+1.4)
3. CHI-BOS OVER 240.5 (+0.3) 

At the moment’s Prime 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER in line with the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Scores Matches:
1. GSW-MEM UNDER 236.5 (-5.6)
2. OKC-ORL UNDER 210.5 (-3.7)
3. DEN-POR UNDER 235.5 (-1.9) 

At the moment’s Prime 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS in line with the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:=
Scores Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +4 (+2.7)
2. UTAH +4.5 (+2.1)
3. NEW YORK +2.5 (+1.5) 

At the moment’s Prime 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES in line with the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Scores Matches:
1. BOSTON -14 (+2.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+2.3)
3. CHARLOTTE -4 (+0.6) 

At the moment’s Prime 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER in line with the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Scores Matches:
1. LAL-SAC OVER 228 (+5.0)
2. IND-PHX OVER 235 (+2.8)
3. NYK-MIN OVER 214.5 (+1.7)

At the moment’s Prime 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER in line with the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Scores Matches:
1. GSW-MEM UNDER 236.5 (-5.2)
2. OKC-ORL UNDER 210.5 (-3.6)
3. DEN-POR UNDER 235.5 (-1.6) 

Prime Every day Head-to-Head Collection NBA Betting Traits

Listed below are the highest head-to-head sequence NBA betting tendencies in play for all of right this moment’s video games:

(541) UTAH at (542) DETROIT
* ROAD TEAMS are 7-1 ATS within the final eight of UTA-DET h2h sequence
Pattern Match: PLAY UTAH ATS 

(545) OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) ORLANDO
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 ATS within the final 13 of the non-conference sequence with Orlando
Pattern Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(547) CHICAGO at (548) BOSTON
* Over the full is 4-0 in all 4 matchups between CHI and BOS within the final two seasons
Pattern Match: PLAY OVER the full 

(549) BROOKLYN at (550) TORONTO
* Favorites have lined 11 of the final 14 of the BKN-TOR rivalry
Pattern Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

* Below the full is 8-1 within the final 9 of the head-to-head sequence
Pattern Match: PLAY UNDER the full 

(551) GOLDEN STATE at (552) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is 9-1 ATS within the final 10 internet hosting GSW, however did lose final time
Pattern Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(555) NEW ORLEANS at (556) HOUSTON
* Below the full is 7-1 within the final eight of the NOP-HOU divisional rivalry
Pattern Match: PLAY UNDER the full 

(559) INDIANA at (560) PHOENIX
* Below the full is 8-1 within the final 9 video games when IND visits Phoenix
Pattern Match: PLAY UNDER the full 

(563) DENVER at (564) PORTLAND
* Over the full is 8-2 within the final 10 of the DEN-POR rivalry in Portland
Pattern Match: PLAY OVER the full