Shared Traits of Tremendous Bowl Groups — 2025 NFL Playoffs Version

Widespread traits of Tremendous Bowl groups:

One in every of my favourite issues to do when taking a look at futures bets for tournaments is to check the resumes of previous tournament-type groups with the present contenders. Whereas precise groups change, what makes a workforce a champion stays largely fixed. I hope you have seen my evaluation of this style earlier than, most notably for NCAA basketball, which has been essentially the most profitable. Effectively, the NFL playoffs are right here, so it is time for an evaluation replace on the widespread traits of previous Tremendous Bowl groups and the way they examine to our present crop of NFL title hopefuls.

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I tracked the traits of the final 46 Tremendous Bowl entrants on the finish of the common season. This might help bettors on the lookout for worth wager on futures and, to a lesser extent, on betting traces and totals as properly. With that in thoughts, learn on as I share the {qualifications} listing and chart detailing the biographies of this season’s 14 playoff groups.

When evaluating earlier event groups, I have a look at every kind of traits, from energy scores to momentum to uncooked stats. After all, present futures odds at sportsbooks reveal consultants’ emotions about which groups they imagine have the perfect probability of successful, however these will not be at all times constructed. Typically occasions they’re fashioned merely from information gained, latest video games, path to a title and even the place a lot of the cash comes from. I imagine my technique of discovering widespread traits from earlier success tales supplies bettors with extra concrete proof on which to base their bets.

So let’s check out a number of the key statistical traits every workforce boasts now in comparison with these of Tremendous Bowl groups within the final 23 years. Only a phrase of warning, nevertheless, once I checked out my chart from a 12 months in the past, it wasn’t performing in addition to it had in earlier years. In actual fact, the 2 Tremendous Bowl groups, the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, ranked third and sixth on my chart, respectively. Moreover, one workforce acquired a “good rating” of 27, and that workforce, the Dallas Cowboys, was upset on the weekend. I’ve discovered that this evaluation normally pegs no less than one of many prime groups within the convention and infrequently drops under No. 4. In 2023, Tremendous Bowl entrants are ranked Nos. 2 and 4 on this chart. We hope that normalcy will return this 12 months.

You will see that the statistics I exploit are largely “physique of labor” numbers; In different phrases, it consists of the groups’ complete common season. Nevertheless, bettors’ scores and momentum scores replicate the latest standing of the groups. This is a listing of 27 stats/strengths I used to qualify this 12 months’s groups as worthy of successful subsequent month’s Tremendous Bowl.

Steve Makinen’s energy ranking

Efficient Energy Index by Steve Makinen

Bettors Score of Steve Makinen

Steve Makinen Momentum Opinions

Win-loss file

ATS win-loss file

Offensive PPG

Offensive speeding yards per sport

Offensive speeding yards per try

Offensive passing yards per sport

Offensive passing yards per try

Complete offensive yards per sport

Complete offensive yards per sport

Offensive conversion proportion from third down

Defensive PPG

Defensive speeding yards per sport

Defensive speeding yards per try

Defensive passing yards per sport

Defensive passing yards per try

Complete defensive yards per sport

Complete defensive yards per sport

Defensive third-down conversion proportion

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Calculus

Yards per play differential

Differential rotation

Common possession time

Typically, once I do such a train, I normally search for groups that share the identical traits as 80% or so of the pattern group I am learning. So, to seek out breakups in workforce stats/rankings for the final 46 Tremendous Bowl entrants, I search for about 37 groups to suit the invoice. You will discover the groups that qualify for every trait within the chart under. Of the Tremendous Bowl groups since 2001, On the conclusion of the common seasonabout 80% of them:

-Has a Steve Makinen Energy Score of 28 or greater

– Steve Makinen’s ESP was +4.0 or greater

– Steve Makinen Bettors ranking of -6.0 or higher

– Steve Makinen has a momentum ranking of +6.0 or higher

– Gained 11 or extra matches (>=68.%)

-Gained 9 or extra matches in ATS (>=56%)

– Scored 24 PPG or extra on offense

– He rushed to >= 100 YPG

– Averaged 4.0 or extra yards per rush try

– Handed >=210 YPG

-Averaging 7.0 or extra yards per move try

– Gained >= 350 whole yards per sport offensively

– Common >= 5.5 yards per play or extra on offense

– Changing 37% of third-place alternatives in assault

– Allowed 22 PPG or much less on protection

– <= 120 speeding yards allowed per sport

– 4.5 yards or fewer are allowed per rush try

– <= 238 or fewer yards allowed per sport

– 6.6 or fewer yards allowed per move try

– Allowed <= 350 whole yards per sport defensively

– Allowed 5.6 yards per play or much less on protection

– Opponents are averaging 39% or much less on third-down conversions

– 2.5 or extra sacks recorded per sport

– Outscored opponents by 6.8 PPG or extra

– Outpacing opponents by 0.3 yards per play or extra

– Flip differential was +6 or extra (+0.38)

– Common acquisition time is greater than half-hour

After qualifying every of the 14 NFL groups that reached the playoffs this season, we come to this chart, with markers indicating that they meet the standards for that statistic:

In idea, the upper the marks, the extra certified this workforce’s CV numbers will likely be to compete within the Tremendous Bowl. In my view, groups with widespread traits are the strongest, hottest and most balanced groups within the league. That may put the winner of this weekend’s GREEN BAY/PHILADELPHIA vs. BALTIMORE in Tremendous Bowl 58 presently. The Packers and Eagles share a rating of 25 within the NFC awards, whereas Baltimore leads the AFC by the identical rating. The subsequent group scored 22 factors. Curiously, the two-time defending champion and prime seed ranks far behind on the listing with simply 16 locations. They’ve been a well-liked workforce that’s not very sturdy statistically this season. We’ll see if that is the 12 months somebody lastly steps up within the AFC and conquers them. It also needs to be famous that the Rams’ rating of 6 is without doubt one of the worst I’ve encountered. In actual fact, the workforce was 5 occasions worse than the bottom workforce final 12 months. Nevertheless, they host a playoff sport on Monday night time.

If you happen to’re trying on the chart and serious about the opening weekend matchups, the most important mismatch numbers are the Vikings (22) versus the Rams (6). Ravens (25) vs. Steelers (14) can also be necessary. The Chargers (19) vs. Texans (14) are the one different workforce during which the street workforce has the very best rating. In idea, the Packers-Eagles matchup is even on this sheet, however the level unfold (Philadelphia -4.5) would not replicate that.

It must be an awesome month for soccer matches. We hope this evaluation helps you win a future wager or two.