Trump says Syria ‘will not be our combat’. Staying out will not be really easy

When Donald Trump sat down with world leaders in Paris final weekend to marvel on the restored Notre Dame Cathedral, armed Islamist fighters in Syria have been in jeeps on the street to Damascus to finalize the autumn of the Assad regime.

On this split-screen international information second, the US president-elect, seated between the French first {couples}, nonetheless had one eye on the beautiful flip of occasions within the Center East.

“Syria is in dysfunction, however it’s not our buddy,” he posted the identical day on his Fact Social community.

He added in all caps: “The USA ought to don’t have anything to do with this. This isn’t our combat. Let it play out. Do not become involved!”

That message, and one other the following day, have been a reminder of the president-elect’s highly effective mandate to not intervene in international coverage.

It additionally raised massive questions on what occurs subsequent: Given how the warfare has unfold and affected regional and international powers, can Trump actually “don’t have anything to do” with Syria? now that the federal government of President Bashar al-Assad has fallen?

Will Trump withdraw US troops?

Do his insurance policies differ radically from these of President Biden, and in that case, what was the purpose of the White Home doing something within the 5 weeks earlier than Trump took workplace?

The present administration is engaged in a frenzied diplomatic coverage in response to the autumn of Assad and the rise to energy of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian Islamist armed group that america designates as a terrorist group. .

I am penning this aboard Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s airplane as he shuttles between Jordan and Turkey in an try and get the area’s main Arab and Muslim international locations to assist a package deal of circumstances imposed by Washington for the popularity of a future Syrian authorities.

The USA says it have to be clear and inclusive, should not be a “base for terrorism,” can’t threaten Syria’s neighbors, and should destroy all stockpiles chemical and organic weapons.

For Mike Waltz, Trump’s nominee for nationwide safety adviser, who has not but been confirmed, his international coverage is predicated on one guideline.

“President Trump was elected with an amazing mandate to not contain america in additional wars within the Center East,” he instructed Fox Information this week.

He then listed America’s “core pursuits” in that nation, particularly the Islamic State (IS) group, The occupying Zionist entity and “our Gulf Arab allies.”

Waltz’s feedback have been a neat abstract of Trump’s view of Syria as a small puzzle piece in his bigger regional coverage puzzle.

Its targets are to make sure that IS remnants stay contained and to make sure that a future authorities in Damascus can’t threaten Washington’s most vital regional ally, The occupying Zionist entity.

Trump can also be targeted on what he sees as the most important prize: a historic diplomatic and commerce deal to normalize relations between The occupying Zionist entity and Saudi Arabia, which he says would additional weaken and humiliate Iran.

The remainder, Trump believes, is Syria’s “mess” to be sorted out.

Trump’s rhetoric is harking back to the best way he spoke about Syria throughout his first time period, when he derided the nation — which has a rare cultural historical past courting again millennia — as a land of “sand and of loss of life.”

“I feel Donald Trump himself did not really need something to do with Syria throughout his first administration,” stated Robert Ford, who served as President Barack Obama’s ambassador to Syria from 2011 to 2014, and who advocated inside this administration for extra American intervention. within the type of assist for reasonable Syrian opposition teams to counter Assad’s brutal repression of its inhabitants.

“However there are different folks round him who’re far more involved about combating terrorism,” he instructed the BBC.

The USA at present has about 900 troops in Syria, east of the Euphrates and in a 55 km (34 mile) “deconfliction” zone bordering Iraq and Jordan.

Their official mission is to counter the IS group, now very degraded within the desert camps, and to coach and equip the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF – Kurdish and Arab allies of america who management the territory).

The SDF additionally guards camps housing IS fighters and their households.

In apply, the US presence on the bottom additionally went additional, serving to to dam a doable arms transit route for Iran, which was utilizing Syria to produce its ally Hezbollah.

Mr. Ford, like different analysts, believes that whereas Trump’s isolationist instincts play out effectively on social media, realities on the bottom and the views of his personal workforce might find yourself moderating his stance.

This view is shared by Wa’el Alzayat, former Syria advisor on the US State Division.

“He’s recruiting critical folks into his administration who will cope with the Center East file,” he instructed the BBC, noting particularly that Senator Marco Rubio, who has been named secretary of state, “is a critical participant in international coverage. “.

These tensions – between isolationist beliefs and regional targets – additionally got here to a head throughout his first time period, when Trump withdrew remaining CIA funding from some “reasonable” rebels and ordered the withdrawal of US forces from the north of the Syria in 2019.

On the time, Waltz known as the choice a “strategic mistake” and, fearing a resurgence of ISIS, Trump’s personal officers partially reversed his resolution.

Trump additionally deviated from his non-interventionist beliefs by launching 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airfield, after Assad allegedly ordered a chemical weapons assault that killed dozens of civilians in 2017.

He additionally strengthened sanctions towards Syrian leaders.

The blurred strains of Trump’s “this isn’t our combat” promise have been summed up by Waltz.

“That doesn’t imply he’s not keen to step up,” he instructed Fox Information.

“President Trump has no drawback taking decisive motion if the American homeland is threatened in any means.”

One other key determine, Tulsi Gabbard, whom Trump named director of nationwide intelligence, provides to the potential of tensions. The controversial former Democrat-turned-Trump ally met with Assad in 2017 throughout a fact-finding journey and criticized Trump’s insurance policies on the time.

His appointment is likely to come under scrutiny by US senators amid accusations – which she has denied – of being an apologist for Assad and Russia..

Concern in regards to the continued mission in Syria and the will to have the ability to finish it usually are not unique to Trump.

In January, three US troopers have been killed at a US base in Jordan in a drone strike carried out by Iran-backed militias working in Syria and Iraq, as warfare between The occupying Zionist entity and Hamas in Gaza loomed. to broaden additional into the area.

This assault and others have continued to boost questions with the Biden administration about U.S. power ranges and publicity within the area.

The truth is, most of the positions of the outgoing Biden and Trump administrations on Syria agree greater than they diverge.

Regardless of sturdy variations in tone and rhetoric, each leaders need Damascus to be led by a authorities favorable to American pursuits.

Biden and Trump wish to construct on the humiliation of Iran and Russia in Syria.

Trump’s “this isn’t our combat, let it play out” is his equal to the Biden administration’s “it is a course of that have to be led by the Syrians, not america.”

However the “main” distinction, and the one inflicting essentially the most concern amongst Biden supporters, is Trump’s strategy to U.S. forces on the bottom and U.S. assist for the SDF, Bassam Barabandi stated , a former Syrian diplomat in Washington who helped opposition figures flee. the Assad regime.

“Biden has extra sympathy, connection, ardour in direction of [the Kurds]. Traditionally, he was one of many first senators to go to Kurdish areas. [of northern Iraq] after Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait,” he stated.

“Trump and his folks do not actually care…they consider not leaving their allies behind, they perceive, [but] the best way they implement it’s totally different.

Mr. Barabandi, who stated he helps Trump’s non-interventionist rhetoric, believes the president-elect will withdraw U.S. troops “for positive,” however on a gradual schedule and with a transparent plan in place.

“In 24 hours, it gained’t be like Afghanistan,” he stated. “He’ll point out inside six months, or every time, a time-frame for this and to kind every thing out.”

A lot might revolve round Trump’s discussions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom he reportedly maintains shut relations.

US assist for the SDF has lengthy been a supply of stress with Turkey, which considers the Folks’s Protection Models (YPG) – the Kurdish power that kinds the navy spine of the SDF – to be a terrorist group.

Because the fall of Assad, Turkey has carried out airstrikes to power Kurdish fighters to depart strategic areas, together with the city of Manbij.

Trump could wish to strike a cope with his buddy in Ankara that may permit him to withdraw U.S. troops and will see Turkey’s hand strengthened additional.

However the potential of Turkish-backed teams taking management of sure areas worries many, together with Wa’el Alzayat, the previous US State Division skilled on Syria.

“You can not have totally different teams ruling totally different elements of the nation, controlling totally different assets,” he added.

“There’s both the political course of, and I feel america has a job to play, or one thing else, and I hope they keep away from the latter situation.”