Veterans of Arab uprisings warn Syrians of risks forward

As jubilant Syrians celebrated the autumn of dictator Bashar al-Assad this week, dire warnings proliferated on Arab social media that this second of pleasure may result in a darkish future.

The truth that the tip of the Assad dynasty got here by the hands of an armed Islamist group with former hyperlinks to al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has elevated concern even amongst Arabs effectively conscious of the bloody toll of the Assad regime.

“Have not individuals who had been optimistic about Syria’s future been with us for the previous 14 years? Ezzedine Fishere, an Egyptian professor of political science at Dartmouth College in america, wrote on Fb.

One other Egyptian social media consumer posted: “Is not what occurred in Iraq after which the Arab uprisings [of 2011] Sufficient to be terrified of what is coming?

In 2011, a wave of common uprisings swept the Arab world, toppling despots in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia and reviving hopes for democratic authorities and financial prosperity – hopes that had been later shattered by new autocracies or civil wars. The Syrian rebellion started on the similar time, however the authorities didn’t fall till 13 years later.

Zaina Erhaim, a Syrian journalist who moved to London in 2017, stated the warnings she acquired from her Tunisian and Egyptian associates had been “simplistic and didn’t keep in mind the Syrian context”. It is as in the event that they had been saying: ‘These poor persons are pleased however they do not know what awaits them.’

“I’ve some hope,” she stated. “We Syrians are much more conscious of our personal failures than these of others. I hope we study not solely from the teachings of others, but additionally from our personal experiences.

For Syrians, it’s a second of intense hope, even when tinged with apprehension. Many Syrians really feel the identical elation that others within the area felt after they threw off their oppressors in 2011.

When Hosni Mubarak, the autocrat who dominated Egypt for 30 years, resigned in 2011 after 18 days of peaceable protests, ecstatic crowds gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Sq., chanting: “Maintain your heads excessive, you might be Egyptian. »

The Muslim Brotherhood subsequently gained legislative elections, and in 2012 Mohamed Morsi, one of many group’s leaders, was elected president with a slim majority. His temporary reign alienated many, together with pro-revolutionary teams. Secular events, Mubarak-era elites and a variety of Egyptians alarmed by the rise of Islamists oppose his regime.

This gave Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, then protection minister and now president, the chance to overthrow Morsi in a 2013 coup with widespread common help. Since then, Egypt’s democratic experiment has been decreased to nothing, protests are banned and there’s little room for dissent.

Hisham Kassem, an Egyptian writer and critic of the Sissi regime, stated the transition failed as a result of Islamists had been “attempting to monopolize the state of affairs and the financial system was not taken significantly.”

“The military had stood on the sidelines and was probably not able to relinquish energy, however its failure was largely because of the poor efficiency of the nation’s political forces,” he stated.

After its personal rebellion, Tunisia’s younger democracy survived for a decade, however collapsed when Kais Saied, a democratically elected populist president, closed parliament in 2021, rewrote the structure to pay attention energy in his arms and started to imprison critics.

The autocratic shift has been welcomed by Tunisians, fed up with chaotic politics, falling dwelling requirements and an ineffective authorities. In October, Saied gained the final presidential elections with 90 p.c of the vote after imprisoning the extra credible of the 2 candidates allowed to run towards him.

The lesson to be realized from Tunisia, in keeping with Olfa Lamloum, a political scientist in Tunis, is that “democratic freedoms can’t survive with out the foundations of a dignified life.

“Protests by the unemployed and others over the previous decade have targeted on social and financial rights,” she stated. “Folks have to see that their lives are enhancing. »

After an rebellion in Libya toppled Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the nation break up beneath two rival governments. They fought a civil struggle in 2019, wherein Russia and regional powers armed and supported totally different sides.

Rival ruling elites have since settled right into a dysfunctional coexistence, financing themselves by siphoning off Libya’s oil revenues.

It appears unlikely that Syria’s trajectory will observe within the footsteps of different so-called “Arab Spring” nations, analysts say. Its fragmentation between totally different armed insurgent teams, mixed with a mosaic of minorities, signifies that the challenges will probably be totally different.

The collapse of the Assad regime additionally adopted a 13-year civil struggle wherein half 1,000,000 individuals had been killed, largely by the regime, and thousands and thousands grew to become refugees.

Assad’s fierce crackdown on peaceable protests in 2011 reworked the Syrian revolution into an armed rebellion wherein Islamist factions finally grew to become essentially the most highly effective teams. Assad invited international allies: first Iran and Iranian-backed militants, together with Hezbollah, then Russia, whose air drive bombed rebel-held areas.

After the autumn of Assad, ISIS nonetheless has energetic cells in components of Syria; US-backed Kurds have established an autonomous enclave within the northeast; and Turkey, which controls pockets of northern Syria, helps different rebels to manage Kurdish militants. Ankara views Syrian Kurdish militants as an extension of its separatist Kurdistan Employees’ Social gathering, the PKK, which has been combating the Turkish state for 4 many years.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, chief of the Sunni HTS, has sought to current himself as a reasonable Islamist who is not going to trample on the rights of Syrian minorities, notably Christians, and the Alawites who shaped the bedrock of Assad’s regime. The Assad household was itself Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

However he has not promised democracy or offered a imaginative and prescient for the longer term, despite the fact that america designates him and his group as terrorists.

Yassin Haj Saleh, a Syrian author and political dissident who spent 16 years in jail, wrote on Fb that the “new Syria” couldn’t be a state “led by a Sunni Islamist Assad.” . . wherein individuals stay followers with out political rights or public liberties, together with freedom of spiritual perception.”

There are additionally fears that Jolani will fail to unify the nation, leaving insurgent teams to struggle for the spoils of Assad’s destroyed state, reigniting battle and resulting in international interference.

Paul Salem, vice chairman of the Center East Institute in Washington, stated that though Syria’s future appears to be like “bumpy,” it’s a optimistic signal that the Syrian state has not melted, in contrast to the Libyan state after the autumn of Gaddafi.

“Additionally observe that opposition forces are defending all authorities workplaces, all public establishments. They don’t assault any of them,” he stated.

Salem stated Syria’s neighbors, together with Turkey, “have no real interest in a failed state” on their doorstep. Though the presence of U.S.-backed Kurdish militants and an autonomous Kurdish enclave may develop into an issue, it might be dealt with by “good diplomacy between Washington and Ankara,” he stated.

“Actually the removing of a bully, whereas welcomed and celebrated, could be very totally different from a transition to one thing higher,” Salem stated.

“However within the Syrian case [because of] the acute evil of the Assad regime, we can’t blame the Syrians. He needed to go away. »