Week 18 NFL Finest Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen

NFL Week 18 Finest Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

To be completely sincere, in 30+ years of betting on NFL video games, I can’t bear in mind a single week as irritating, weird, and infuriating as final week. Not solely did favorites and public performs proceed to roll at an unprecedented tempo, however I misplaced a recreation the place my 3.5-point favourite received whereas holding the opponent to three factors, and two different video games the place I had underdogs of 4 factors lose in extra time after making unbelievable performs late to power the ties. In each cases, I used to be clamoring for the groups to go for two and the regulation wins as a result of they had been enjoying higher offenses. As such, I dropped my season report again to precisely .500, 75-75-2 ATS (50%). It has been a regrettable season, particularly after the best way issues went the final two years. Hopefully, I can end issues robust with Week 18 and the playoffs. Let’s kick off the 2025 NFL calendar with a take a look at the season finales.

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Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

For as a lot as I normally don’t like enjoying large numbers like this recreation has within the NFL, it’s powerful to see any situation by which Cleveland places up a lot of a combat in opposition to Baltimore with the AFC North title on the road. The one issues I might even take into account can be that it was a divisional rivalry, and Cleveland really received final day out. Nevertheless, this Ravens’ workforce appears very centered as evidenced by the rout at Houston on Christmas. The Texans scored simply 2 factors in that one. The Ravens have allowed simply 11 PPG of their final three video games. 

In the meantime, Cleveland has mustered a complete of 16 factors in its final three outings. It will appear that head coach John Harbaugh’s workforce would possibly solely want 24 factors to cowl this one. With Baltimore’s offense on a roll, it must be famous that QB Lamar Jackson is 29-9 SU and 24-13 ATS in a recreation following up scoring 30+ factors since 2018. 

There are, after all, a number of late-season betting conditions to additionally take into account. First, in NFL December/January common season video games since 2012, residence groups with a minimum of 4 extra wins than their opponent are 147-32 SU and 102-75 ATS (57.6%), together with 121-17 SU and 81-56 ATS when favored by 6-points or extra. Second, in NFL December/January common season video games since 2012, street underdogs permitting 24.0 PPG or extra are simply 36-158 SU and 83-107 ATS (43.7%). Lastly, as I discussed briefly, Cleveland really received the sooner recreation between these rivals, making this a revenge situation, and groups that misplaced the prior recreation to an opponent however now have a report 20% or higher outright have gone 42-15 SU and 36-21 ATS (63.2%) within the rematch contest.

NFL Week 18 Finest Wager: It’s an enormous quantity (-18.5), however Baltimore has earned it and will cowl

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

I observe a number of vocal sports activities specialists on X who both reside within the Indy space or are large followers of the Colts. For maybe legitimate causes, the workforce’s management is vilified on a weekly foundation, no matter successful or dropping. I’m undecided what these individuals’s expectations had been for the 2024 season, however from an outdoor perspective, this has not been anyplace close to as unhealthy of a marketing campaign for the groups as what I’ve learn. At 7-9, this workforce is barely a bit beneath the place they had been anticipated to be by oddsmakers (8.5 season win complete at DK). And to be honest to move coach Shane Steichen, he has been coping with a uniquely unattainable QB state of affairs to handle. Nonetheless, he takes care of enterprise in opposition to lesser groups and is on a 12-3 SU and ATS run vs. poor offensive groups scoring <19 PPG. 

That is additionally a workforce that appears to rebound properly after unhealthy performances, as Indianapolis is 30-15 SU and 32-11 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011. The opponent for this week, Jacksonville, is on a horrific 5-40 SU and 12-33 ATS skid vs. groups with higher information since 2011. The Jaguars additionally match the invoice of a few good late-season fade methods: 1) In NFL December/January common season video games since 2010, street groups scoring fewer than 19 PPG and enjoying as canine of +13 factors or fewer are simply 33-124 SU and 56-98 ATS (36.4%). And a couple of) In NFL December/January common season video games since 2012, street underdogs permitting 24.0 PPG or extra are simply 36-158 SU and 83-107 ATS (43.7%). The Colts can begin trying ahead to a greater 2025 with a win right here, however they aren’t a really public favourite this week, which I like.

NFL Week 18 Finest Wager: I’m going with Indianapolis to cowl the 5 factors vs. Jacksonville

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

It was entertaining watching QB Michael Penix lead his workforce to a close to upset at Washington final week. You possibly can clearly see that the Falcons have quite a bit to stay up for with him taking on subsequent season. This week, nonetheless, it could appear that he has been saddled with somewhat an excessive amount of strain by oddsmakers, as Atlanta sits as an 8-point favourite in what’s being exaggerated as a “must-win” recreation. Even with a win, the probabilities of them successful the division with assist from the Saints over Tampa are distant. 

The opponent for this week is a Carolina workforce that has proven some life within the second half of the season, with final week being an exception to the rule. That mentioned, I might anticipate Carolina and head coach Dave Canales to proceed to construct on a number of the progress they’ve proven down the stretch. Because it stands, this can be a relatively powerful line spot for Atlanta, who’s simply 38-66 ATS as a single-digit favourite since 2012. Head coach Raheem Morris is on a 12-15 SU and 10-17 ATS slide in residence video games, and re-tread head coaches, typically, have been way more proficient at protecting level spreads on the street over the past decade, with a house mark of simply 91-120-1 ATS (43.1%). 

This group of coaches has additionally been brutal bets as favorites however respectable within the underdog function of their first seasons with a brand new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 100-70 SU however simply 63-96-11 ATS, for 39.6%! Carolina was walloped in Tampa final week, however there’s an uncommon however profitable late-season betting system indicating that since 2014, NFL groups coming off divisional losses and now enjoying on the street have gone 63-69 SU however 76-52 ATS (59.4%) within the follow-up recreation. I anticipate Carolina to compete properly right here.

NFL Week 18 Finest Wager: I received Carolina +8 in Atlanta

Sunday, 1:00 p.m ET

If there’s any actual #1 public guess recreation of the week within the NFL, that is it. At each DraftKings and Circa in keeping with the betting splits pages on VSiN, there isn’t any workforce that’s getting as a lot help as Washington. In spite of everything, the Commanders clinched a playoff spot final week and may earn the #6 seed with a win right here. Does that make it a “must-win?” I don’t assume that motivation goes to be prevalent, and in reality, I might recommend that the probabilities for a letdown are even larger. 

They may face a Dallas workforce that got here to life within the second half, after all, discounting final week’s turnover-laden blowout loss at Philly. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s workforce was on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge prior, scoring 27.4 PPG within the course of. The Cowboys have additionally been one of many league’s greatest groups in divisional video games these days, going vs. divisional opponents since 2016. 

Wanting on the Commanders’ mixture of retread coach Dan Quinn and rookie QB Jayden Daniels, we’ve got a few different angles that recommend this is perhaps a troublesome protecting spot. First, retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites however respectable within the underdog function of their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 100-70 SU however simply 63-96-11 ATS, for 39.6%! Second, the outcomes of rookie quarterbacks on the street these days are startling. Because the begin of the 2013 season, rookie starters have mixed for a report of 122-117-1 ATS (51%) in residence video games however simply 104-130-2 ATS (44.4%) in street/impartial video games. In later season street video games, Week 10-EOY, they’re simply 35-106 SU and 57-82-2 ATS (41%). Should you recall, the Cowboys upended the Commanders 34-26 in a stunning November upset. Do you know, nonetheless, that Dallas is 16-1 to the Over in its final 17 residence rematch video games, and that Over the full is 8-1 within the final 9 of WAS-DAL collection in Dallas? I see two fairly good performs on this recreation.

NFL Week 18 Finest Wager: I’ll take Dallas +4.5 and Over 44 on this NFC East conflict

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

In its final 10 video games, Houston has gone simply 4-6 SU and ATS. Even nonetheless, the Texans have managed to clinch the divisional title within the weak AFC South. This week’s contest in opposition to Tennessee has turn out to be a “meaningless” recreation accordingly. Nevertheless, if you happen to’re a member of the Texans, at this level, isn’t it important that the workforce places collectively a superb efficiency earlier than heading into subsequent week’s playoff tilt? I can’t consider one other playoff-bound workforce that should generate extra momentum this week. 

There most likely aren’t many groups I’d need to face proper now to generate momentum greater than the Titans. Have you ever thought of that Tennessee is at present on a 7-27 SU and 7-26-1 ATS skid in Sunday video games? That’s loopy unhealthy, and it’s exhausting to examine this workforce mustering up the trouble to shut the season robust when the potential first decide in April’s draft is on the road.

The Titans are the topic of a pleasant late season fade system: In NFL December/January common season video games since 2010, groups on dropping streaks of a minimum of three video games outright and enjoying as underdogs or favorites of lower than 3 factors are simply 45-107 SU and 62-91 ATS (40.5%).

 In fact, everybody is aware of how poorly Houston performed on Christmas Day vs. Baltimore. Don’t overreact to that, nonetheless, as NFL groups that misplaced, scored 7 factors or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a recreation have carried out admirably as underdogs within the subsequent contest, 20-36 SU however 36-20 ATS (64.3%) over the past decade-plus. 

My “starter rest games” article from earlier this week additionally revealed that 1) underdogs within the video games the place groups are resting starters are on a 23-11 ATS run (67.6%), 2) over the past 13 years, the workforce resting its starters has a pleasant ATS fringe of 20-14-2 ATS (58.8%) mark in Week 17/18 video games, and three) street groups have carried out exceptionally in resting starters video games, going 16-17 SU and 23-8-1 ATS (74.2%) over the past 12 seasons, pulling seven outright upsets. It is a very small line, however it could nonetheless be an “upset,” and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Houston starters a minimum of play partially.

NFL Week 18 Finest Wager: I’ll take Houston +1.5 in Tennessee

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

A gritty effort from Denver at Cincinnati final Saturday got here up brief. Now, the Broncos discover themselves in a probably must-win state of affairs versus Kansas Metropolis. I say probably as a result of if the Bengals lose at Pittsburgh on Saturday, this may primarily turn out to be a meaningless recreation with head coach Sean Payton’s workforce already into the playoffs. As such, I might most likely be snug ready until Sunday to guess this recreation if you happen to like Denver, which I do. I don’t assume there’s any danger within the line going larger than -10.5 since it’s already priced with the Chiefs starters resting. With that in thoughts, at both the present value or the Denver meaningless value, I nonetheless desire the Broncos right here. 

Why? Properly, for one, head coach Sean Payton has a good way of getting his groups to bounce again after street defeats, as he’s 16-9 SU and 19-5-1 ATS within the final 25 video games when coming off an outright street loss. Secondly, this late-season system will even be in play: Since 2015, NFL groups with successful percentages of 83% or larger are simply 50-37 SU and 32-54-1 ATS (37.2%) in December/January common season video games, together with 11-26-1 ATS vs. divisional opponents. Third, relating to QB Bo Nix, who has loved an incredible season for the reason that begin of the 2020 season, rookie beginning quarterbacks have taken care of enterprise within the residence favourite function, going 41-11 SU and 38-13-1 ATS (74.5%).

Lastly, assuming the road stays the place it’s, in rematch video games the place level spreads have modified 17 factors or extra from the prior contest, the workforce that the road moved favorably in the direction of is on a 37-1 SU and 27-11 ATS (71.1%) run. That could be a fairly robust pattern at 37-1 outright, and contemplating that in recent times, Chiefs “meaningless recreation” traces have by no means been anyplace close to this degree, I consider oddsmakers know the way irrelevant the sport might be to them.

NFL Week 18 Finest Wager: I’ll take the Broncos at wherever the Sunday line winds up

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Rams managed to clinch the NFC West Division final weekend over Seattle by a deep widespread opponent tiebreaker after surviving a decent contest versus Arizona. To me, they regarded like a workforce very relieved to have the playoff-clinching determined earlier than having to face the Seahawks in head-to-head play this Sunday. As such, I believe Seattle and head coach Mike Macdonald might be enjoying with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder in opposition to a partial Rams workforce. 

Even with out the truth that head coach Sean McVay’s workforce might be resting starters, they had been already in a troublesome protecting spot for this one, as in NFL December/January common season video games since 2010, groups on successful streaks of a minimum of three video games however not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been horrible wagers, going 22-32 SU and 16-38 ATS (29.6%). Seattle, after all, comes off a really ugly victory final Thursday night time in Chicago, a 6-3 determination. 

That units them up properly for Sunday in keeping with this angle: NFL groups which have received a recreation regardless of scoring lower than 12 factors within the victory have carried the momentum by the subsequent recreation with a 19-13 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (67.7%) report. Should you recall from my NFL article earlier this week, street groups have carried out exceptionally in resting starters video games, going 16-17 SU and 23-8-1 ATS (74.2%) over the past 12 seasons.

NFL Week 18 Finest Wager: I’ll take Seattle -6.5 right here in opposition to a Rams workforce that actually will tank

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

For in addition to each the Vikings and Lions offenses have been enjoying, I used to be nonetheless a bit shocked to see this complete get launched so excessive in such an necessary recreation. Minnesota’s protection has performed very properly these days. Although banged up, the Detroit protection has performed very properly occasionally. I don’t assume both of those coaches needs to get right into a recreation that winds up within the 30s or larger for each. My preliminary projections for this recreation by my efficient and bettors’ scores pegged the full at 52.3 and 53.0, respectively. The truth is, I don’t assume I’ve had a recreation off by that a lot all yr on these scores. Who is true, me or these behind the counter? 

Properly, in keeping with bettors at DraftKings, the bookies are proper, and even perhaps low, as 83% of the deal with and 75% of the bets supported a gap complete of 57. Even so, the quantity has nonetheless dropped to 56.5. Isn’t that an eye-opener in itself? Taking a better take a look at the defensive numbers, each of those groups maintain opponents a minimum of 1.8 factors beneath their scoring averages. Making use of the maths, Minnesota can be certain for twenty-four factors, Detroit 30. Nonetheless not reaching the 56.5 mark. 

Should you’re on the lookout for pattern angles like I do, take into account that Minnesota’s QB Sam Darnold is 25-11 Below the full when his workforce performs with regular relaxation (7 days) since 2019 and that Detroit’’s head coach Dan Campbell is 13-7 Below the full in video games after permitting 30+ factors since 2015. The truth that this recreation is so excessive stakes and on Sunday Night time Soccer additionally intrigues me, as I believe each coaches might be somewhat extra conservative than common. As it’s, Detroit in 7-1-1 Below in its final 9 on SNF, and Minnesota exhibits an total 23-12 Below primetime report since 2015.

NFL Week 18 Finest Wager: I’ll go in opposition to the grain on SNF and name for an Below 56.5

For extra NFL Week 18 greatest bets, go to the NFL Week 18 betting hub, completely on VSiN.