After greater than a yr of incessant battle within the Center East, the beautiful capitulation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime will go down within the area's historical past as one of many biggest shocks.
In simply 12 days, the rebels marched from the north after which the south into the guts of Damascus, capture the capital and finish the Assads' dynastic rule over the nation that has lasted for greater than 50 years. In lower than two weeks, they achieved what tens of hundreds of armed opposition fighters had didn’t do throughout 13 horrific years of civil warfare.
Moscow and Tehran, Assad's principal backers, have been unable or unwilling to stem the tide, each caught in their very own conflicts – Russia in Ukraine, Iran and its proxies of their battle 14 months with The occupying Zionist entity.
In some ways, the regime's spectacular fall seems to be one of many unintended penalties of The occupying Zionist entity's fierce retaliation in opposition to its enemies because the Hamas assault on October 7, 2023. The next yr upended all earlier norms within the area, fostering a flamable and unpredictable surroundings.
Israeli forces have been launching airstrikes on Syria for months, killing Iranian commanders and people of their proxies, whereas bombing Iranian and Iran-linked services. Hezbollahthe Lebanese militant motion that additionally supported the Assad regime through the civil warfare.
However greater than something, the rebels' blitzkrieg underlined the worrying nature of Assad's damaged and corrupt regime.
Assadwho succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad in 2000, was a brutal despot. He used the cruelest means to suppress his opponents through the civil warfare: chemical weapons, barrel bombs, siege and hunger techniques, mass detentions, torture and homicide.
Greater than 12 million folks, half the inhabitants, had been pressured from their properties through the decade of warfare. There are greater than 100,000 so-called “disappeared” folks, that’s, individuals who have been taken away by safety forces and whose whereabouts are nonetheless unknown.
Because the parasitic regime bled the nation dry, even members of its personal minority Alawite group, who had despatched their sons to die in Assad's warfare in opposition to his personal folks, had been demoralized and determined after years of financial and social hardship. rising.
Assad's demise might be welcomed by the tens of millions who suffered beneath his rule, as a result of he refused to compromise and negotiate together with his opponents a political settlement that might have stabilized the nation and put it on a special trajectory .
However the huge outpouring of jubilation might be tempered by suspicion about what occurs subsequent.
The offensive was led by probably the most highly effective insurgent drive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group previously affiliated with al-Qaeda that has been labeled a terrorist group by the UN, the USA and different states. Its chief Abu Mohammad al-Jolaniwho has publicly declared his need to overcome Damascus and now emerges as the principle decision-maker, as soon as fought alongside the jihadist group ISIS and acquired a $10 million US bounty on his head.
Within the six years since HTS dominated the nation's northwest province of Idlib by way of a civilian-led authorities, it has sought to rebrand the group as a motion extra reasonable Islamist. However he maintained his management with an iron fist, and U.N. businesses have documented abuses.
If Jolani, 42, succeeds in realizing his ambition to manipulate, it’ll create issues for Western powers and worldwide businesses over how they need to work together with him and HTS.
However HTS is only one of a number of opposition teams which are remnants of the unique riot and took half within the assault. And prior to now, the completely different factions have clashed.
Throughout the newest offensive, there was coordination between HTS and Turkish-backed factions working beneath the umbrella of the Syrian Nationwide Military, and different teams which have surrounded Damascus from the south.
The actual take a look at, nevertheless, will come when the factions search to share the spoils of victory – and energy.
Malik al-Abdeh, a Syrian analyst, stated he was comforted that the riot appeared to have been clearly coordinated between HTS and the assorted different teams, calling the assault on the regime a “managed demolition plan.”
“This sense of euphoria and pleasure was additionally tempered by the sensation that there could possibly be violence – it’s virtually too good to be true,” Abdeh stated. “However it’s clear that there’s a plan, HTS and Jolani have very fastidiously communicated that there’s a map. This reassured many individuals.
Along with Sunni Muslim insurgent teams, there are Kurdish-led forces — whom the USA has supported within the struggle in opposition to ISIS — that management a part of northeastern Syria.
Turkey, nevertheless, considers them as a expansion of Kurdish separatists who’ve been preventing the Turkish state for many years.
Turkish troops have been deployed for a number of years in northern Syria to struggle Kurdish militants and their hyperlinks to Sunni insurgent teams. Which means Ankara is now arguably probably the most highly effective actor in its neighbor and can play a central function in what occurs subsequent.
Turkey, nevertheless, maintains a fancy, generally delicate relationship with HTS, which it has additionally designated as a terrorist group.
The USA, in the meantime, has roughly 900 troops within the nation to help the struggle in opposition to ISIS.
In addition to the danger of intra-rebel clashes, there might be fears that IS – which as soon as managed massive elements of northern and northeastern Syria – will search to take advantage of the chaos and make a comeback.
Minority teams throughout Syria, lengthy one of the crucial secular international locations within the area – an element that served Assad himself as a member of a minority – might be involved about what comes subsequent. The nation has a various inhabitants of tribes, religions and sects.
Throughout the offensive, Jolani, an city pragmatist, reached out to tribes, former opponents and negotiated give up offers whereas ordering the safety of minorities.
Neighboring international locations together with The occupying Zionist entity, Jordan and Lebanon can even be cautious, as will Gulf states which have re-engaged Assad in recent times and think about Islamist actions as destabilizing forces.
Weakening Assad has served the pursuits of Syria's neighbors, and The occupying Zionist entity has lengthy wished to finish the presence of Iran and Hezbollah on its northern border. However there can even be concern concerning the potential prospect of a fragile state, hollowed out and plunged into chaos, with Islamist teams main the best way.
When fashionable uprisings in opposition to authoritarian regimes swept the Center East in 2011, a wave of optimism swept throughout the area. Nevertheless it was all too temporary.
Syria has descended right into a devastating civil warfare. In Egypt, the military seized energy in a popularly-backed coup two years after the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak. The nation is led by one of the crucial autocratic regimes within the area.
In Libya, there was a second of alliance with democracy earlier than rival armed factions turned on one another and the North African nation remained fragmented and chaotic.
The problem going through Syria, now that Assad has lastly been toppled, is whether or not it might probably overcome the pitfalls and keep away from the calamities that ravaged different nations after the autumn of despots, and start the daunting strategy of reconstruction. and reconciliation.
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