Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan might change into one of many large winners from the autumn of the Assad regime after grappling with years of instability and isolation from the Syrian civil struggle raging on his doorstep for 13 years.
Talking on Saturday in Gaziantep, certainly one of a number of border cities remodeled by the battle and the thousands and thousands of refugees it has created, the Turkish chief stated there was a “new diplomatic and political actuality in Syria” after extra of a decade of assist for the Syrian armed opposition. .
It stays unclear to what extent Ankara supported the blitzkrieg offensive of the previous two weeks that toppled Bashar al-Assad's authorities on Sunday. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that carried out the assault, has sophisticated relations with Turkey.
However many analysts are satisfied that Erdoğan, who as soon as known as the Syrian president a “butcher,” stands to realize politically and economically from his new place as probably the most influential international actor within the nation after Assad's fall. , supported by Russia and Syria. Iran.
“After the Syrians, Turkey is the largest winner right here,” stated Ömer Özkizilcik, a senior fellow on the Atlantic Council assume tank. “When everybody deserted the Syrians, when no different state supported the opposition, Turkey didn’t abandon them,” he added.
Erdoğan threw his assist behind the wave of Arab uprisings that swept the Center East in 2011, spurred by the hope that it will empower allies of his Islamist-based Justice and Improvement Celebration (AKP). He stayed with them whilst the USA and different Western powers who had initially supported the rebellions gave up.
He welcomed greater than three million Syrian refugees as “brothers and sisters” and offered weapons and coaching to insurgent teams combating the Syrian president.
When hopes for regime change light, as Assad was rescued by Moscow and Tehran and Turkey confronted the rising fallout from the battle, Erdoğan centered on combating forces dominated by the Kurds, thought-about by Ankara as terrorists, whereas they had been profitable within the north of the nation. jap Syria.
Extra lately, Erdoğan made representations to Assad, however these had been rebuffed. “The Damascus regime has by no means been capable of perceive the worth of the hand prolonged by Turkey,” lamented the Turkish president on Saturday.
But even because it reached out to Assad, Turkey continued to assist the rebels and in addition offered a lifeline to the HTS stronghold of Idlib, for years the final province in opposition palms. It additionally administered some territory elsewhere in northern Syria and continued to assist a insurgent group working below the identify the Syrian Nationwide Military.
These ties to opposition teams, which on Sunday realized their long-held dream of conquering Damascus, go away Erdoğan higher positioned than every other international chief to capitalize on their anticipated rise to energy – even when the state of affairs additionally stays extremely risky and unsure.
Considered one of Erdoğan's nice hopes is that Assad's fall will permit the return of lots of Turkey's practically three million Syrian refugees. Their continued presence is deeply unpopular, even amongst his personal supporters. Turkish Inside Minister Ali Yerlikaya stated final week, after rebels captured Aleppo, that 1.3 million Syrians in Turkey had been from that metropolis and plenty of “couldn't include their enthusiasm.” » on the concept of returning there.
The collapse of the Assad regime might additionally shift the steadiness of energy within the complicated relationship between Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin, who’ve supported opposing sides not solely in Syria but additionally in different conflicts, notably in Libya. “Turkey is more likely to undertake a extra assertive posture within the area,” Wolfango Piccoli of consultancy Teneo stated in a be aware to shoppers, including that it will additionally strengthen Ankara's place towards Iran.
Turkey, already fighting excessive inflation and a recession, would profit from totally resuming commerce relations alongside the 900 km Syrian-Turkish border. Its development sector, which has shut ties to Erdoğan, may gain advantage from a reconstruction invoice anticipated to run into lots of of billions of {dollars}. “If there’s peace, it’s a nice alternative,” stated an govt of certainly one of Turkey's largest development firms.
But regardless of Turkey's potential, there’s additionally nice uncertainty about what sort of authorities will fill the void created by the brutal collapse of the Assad regime and what sort of relationship it should keep with its northern neighbor.
Though Ankara by no means managed HTS – which it describes as a terrorist group – it had some leverage when the group entrenched itself in Idlib, with Turkey as its foremost path to the skin world. It’s unknown what affect he’ll retain over the chief of the group Abu Mohammad al-Jolani now that he and his allies have taken the entire nation.
Fundamental peace and stability are removed from assured, with the chance that new conflicts will push extra refugees to flee to Turkey. İlhan Üzgel, a senior official within the staunchly secular opposition CHP occasion, expressed worry that Erdoğan had “created circumstances for the emergence of a brand new Afghanistan” on its border.
With Turkey nonetheless related within the minds of many Syrians with the Ottoman Empire – which hanged nationalist dissidents within the heart of Damascus – it should watch out to not overstep its bounds within the weeks and months to return. Jolani known as for a nationwide dialogue free from international interference.
Ankara might generate resentment if it seeks to impose its will on the brand new authorities, stated Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish analysis program on the Washington Institute. “The Ottoman legacy shapes how Arabs will see Turkey coming in and changing into the brand new boss,” he stated.
One other large query considerations what function Syria's Kurds will play in a future authorities and whether or not they’ll retain among the hard-won autonomy they received within the northeast.
Ankara could be cautious of any negotiations between a brand new authorities in Damascus and Kurdish armed teams. It considers the latter to be terrorists with shut ties to its decades-old enemy, the Kurdistan Staff' Celebration (PKK). Turkish Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan insisted on Sunday that teams which can be “an extension of the PKK” wouldn’t be capable to take part in negotiations on the way forward for Syria.
The long run function of the USA, which has supported Kurdish forces of their combat towards ISIS and maintains round 900 troops in Syria, additionally stays unsure. President-elect Donald Trump stated Saturday that the Syrian battle is “not our combat.”
Sinem Adar, a researcher on the German Institute for Worldwide and Safety Affairs in Berlin, stated that with occasions shifting so rapidly and so many elements of Syria's future nonetheless unsure, it was too early to say whether or not Erdoğan would finally emerge triumphant from the occasions of the final two weeks. “All the things continues to be up within the air,” she stated. “I’m not satisfied that Turkey is totally accountable for the state of affairs.”
Cartography by Steven Bernard
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